ES Weekly Outlook – 2025 Week 46
Date Range: 10th, November 2025 to 14th, November 2025
Weekly Executive Strip
Bias:
Mildly bullish, supported by factors such as the absence of follow-through bear bars and the price remaining within a tight bull channel on the daily chart. Further details in subsequent sections.
Range Focus:
6522–6844, encompassing all of Zone 1, Zone 2, and the area between them.
Key Levels:
Hard Resistance: Zone 1 (6800–6844)
Soft Support: Upper boundary of Zone 2 (~6655.5)
Hard Support: Lower boundary of Zone 2 (~6525)
Macro Events:
CPI release and 30-Year Bond Auction scheduled for Thursday.
Actions for Monday:
Gap-Up Scenario:
Probability of an upside gap is modestly elevated following Friday’s strong reversal.
Caution: If the gap opens directly at or near the Daily EMA20 (~6800), which coincides with the lower edge of hard resistance Zone 1, avoid ag§gressive longs. Anticipate sideways action or a potential reversal. Wait for price action confirmation before committing.
Small Gap + Strong Bull Bar: Enter long with stop below the gap; target Zone 1 and trail stops to lock in gains.
Gap-Down Scenario:
Expect buyers to step in below the open, but strength remains uncertain. A gap down at the open suggests consensus has not yet solidified despite Friday’s reversal.
Shorting: Only if the gap is significant and followed by clear bearish continuation after about 6 bars post-open. Otherwise, prioritize to look for long setups.
Bearish Confirmation on Monday: If bearish trend present clearly on Monday, Zone 2 should be reached promptly, retesting last week’s low within 1–2 days. The probability of finding support lower in Zone 2(Maybe deep enough) exceeds 50%.
Monthly Outlook
Trend:
Bearish, with the probability of closing the current monthly bar as a bull bar below 50%.
Patterns:
Parabolic climax featuring six consecutive bull bars, followed by an inside bar with a shorter upper tail.
Key Observations:
It is premature to predict the monthly bar’s close with three weeks remaining. However, given the present configuration and historical precedents following six consecutive monthly bull bars, the likelihood of sideways action or a modest reversal persisting through year-end is elevated.
The market is likely to trade sideways between Zone 2 and Zone 1 for the next few weeks, retesting the previously broken upper trend line—potentially as early as next week or before Christmas. Absent a decisive reversal back into the larger channel, the uptrend remains intact. Should the upper trend line fail to hold, anticipate a sharp pullback to test the prior breakout zone and even monthly EMA20.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
Monthly open at ~6877.5. Probability of a bull bar this month remains low for now (to be reassessed at month-end).
Support:
Soft Support: 6525 (lower boundary of Zone 2)
Hard Support: 6242 (prior breakout zone), with further downside risk to the monthly EMA20 at ~5970.
Weekly Outlook
Trend:
Mildly bearish, but anticipating sideways consolidation rather than aggressive downside continuation.
Patterns:
Three pushes within a tight bull channel; weekly bar closed below its midpoint, yet strong buying emerged at the channel’s lower boundary.
Key Observations:
Despite the weekly close below midpoint, the final daily bar was bullish, signaling bulls remain resilient amid this sharp pullback week. I expect mild sideways action with another bearish weekly close next week. Should this occur, bearish momentum would solidify, elevating the odds of testing Zone 2’s lower boundary.
A small bullish weekly bar remains possible, but further downside legs to probe Zone 2 are equally likely. Only a strong bullish weekly bar (currently <50% probability) would shift bias toward sustained sideways-to-upward action; otherwise, sideways or reversal odds exceed 50%.
Bears’ primary near-term target should be to test the weekly EMA20, which aligns with Zone 2’s bottom. For bulls, accumulating sideways bars increases the probability of regaining control and pushing toward new all-time highs.
Levels to Watch:
Hard Resistance: Zone 1 (6800–6844)
Soft Support: Upper boundary of Zone 2 (~6655.5)
Hard Support: Lower boundary of Zone 2 (~6525)
Daily Outlook
Trend:
Sideways with bearish momentum.
Patterns:
Price blew below the daily EMA20, leaving a gap; however, last Friday closed as a bull bar with a very long lower tail, signaling strong buying pressure. Failed breakout above the October 27 high, and the November 4 retest failed to hold.
Key Observations:
The gap below the daily EMA20 may close, but the probability of breaking out above Zone 1 remains low. Expect continued sideways action—this may represent the best outcome for bulls.
If treating the large bear bar from October 10 as a trading range, the failed bullish breakout from it significantly raises the odds of retesting that bar’s low, which coincides closely with the bottom of Zone 2.
Levels to Watch:
Hard Resistance: Zone 1 (6800–6844)
Soft Support: Upper boundary of Zone 2 (~6655.5)
Hard Support: Lower boundary of Zone 2 (~6525)
5min Reviews for Last Monday
Good Entries:
As mentioned in last week's Actions on Next Monday: 'Take profits on longs into 6900 on a gap-up and wait for fresh signals.', obviously the market gave clear signal of bearish momentum. The market delivered a clear bearish signal instead.Shorting below Bar 1 offered a high-probability retest of the trading-range low. The daily low never reached Friday’s low, so if that was the target, exiting above Bar 14 was a solid choice. For those using measured moves, once a second leg formed after Bars 9 and 10, placing a limit order at 1× the measured move resulted in a perfect execution at Bar 13.
Entering long above Bar 17 or 18 was reasonable, especially since Bar 18 closed above the EMA20. The ideal exit came at 1 time measured move, triggered precisely at Bar 52. Even without that specific plan, most positions likely closed near breakeven by the end of the session.
5min Reviews for Last Tuesday
Good Entries:
A significant gap down well below Monday’s low highlighted bearish momentum on higher timeframes. Shorting below Bar 1 was logical, but with a stop-loss in place (as you always should), the trade was stopped out immediately at Bar 3. That’s acceptable—treat it as a small loss and shift focus to the price action in front of you rather than clinging to prior bias. Going long above Bar 3 made sense, as it formed a strong bull bar that surpassed Bar 1’s high. Targeting 1× measured move from that setup yielded a clean exit at Bar 15. A 2× target was unrealistic given the prevailing bearish context and the prior strong support level now acting as resistance.
After exiting longs at 1× measured move, Bars 15, 16, and 17 clearly signaled renewed downside probability. Shorting below any of those bars with a target to retest the open was a solid plan. Using a trailing stop allowed the trade to run, revealing a clearer double-bottom structure. Converting the trailing stop to a fixed limit order at Bar 63 captured the full 1× measured move on the short side. The key takeaway: in a defined trend or within one side of a trading range, combining trailing stops with strategic limit orders maximizes profit while securing gains efficiently.
5min Reviews for Last Wednesday
Good Entries:
Without a significant gap down, Wednesday’s open lacked clear consensus. After three sideways bars, Bar 4 closed as a decisive bull bar. In this context, assume bulls have regained strength and aim to push price back to retest the prior trading range low. Entering long above Bar 4 was logical, and a trailing stop offered the best chance to maximize profit. However, applying Tuesday’s tactic of tightening the profit-taking zone would have resulted in only a modest gain, as the 1× measured move target went unfilled; the trailing stop likely triggered at Bar 76.
That said, recognizing the persistent sideways action and the formidable resistance (former support), a more conservative exit below Bar 54—before the trailing stop fired—would have locked in profits earlier and avoided giving much back.
5min Reviews for Last Thursday
Good Entries:
Wednesday closed near its midpoint, and Thursday opened slightly lower with a modest gap. Shorting below Bar 3 was a sound setup, targeting a retest of Wednesday’s low. If you took profits at Bar 5 expecting a reversal to resume trading-range behavior, Bars 12, 13, and 14 should have forced a reassessment—the bearish momentum clearly intensified. In hindsight, Bar 13 offered the optimal short entry: it retested the prior trading-range low and immediately faced heavy selling, confirming strong downside conviction. Waiting for Bar 14 would have been late. Capturing the full bearish move was challenging since the 1× measured move target remained unfilled intraday, but the price retested the intraday low three times, giving ample opportunity to evaluate whether bears still had sufficient force to drive lower.
A useful note: holding the short overnight would have seen the 1× measured move fully achieved at the open of the following trading day. You should only do that if the higher time frame structure is clear and the probability is high.
5min Reviews for Last Friday
Good Entries:
Another gap down with accelerating downside momentum allowed for a 2× measured move target, which was precisely achieved at Bar 30 on Friday. Notably, this 2× level coincides with the lower boundary of the bull channel—a significant structural support. Continuous shorting here demands caution. Instead, after observing a higher low, entering long above Bar 41 became a high-probability setup for a potential major trend reversal. With a trailing stop, the full upside move could be captured through the close of the session.
