ES Weekly Outlook – 2025 Week 48
Date Range: 24th, November 2025 to 28th, November 2025
Weekly Executive Strip
Bias:
Sideways or slightly bullish
Bullish Perspective
Clear double bottom formation
Potential two-legged pullback (trading range style)
Holding support at the daily 50 EMA (6500)
Bears showing no convincing follow-through on bearish bars
Friday closed at its high of the day with little tail
Higher-timeframe channel support(more flatten trend line drawn with purple) still intact (a decisive break below this line would invalidate the entire bull case)
Bearish Perspective:
Price remains inside an obvious bear channel (though it could still resolve as a bull flag)
First major resistance will be at the daily 20 EMA (6750)
This week’s bar closed in Zone 2 (lower half of the weekly range) and left the gap below 6655 open on the weekly chart (note: the gap is already filled on the daily chart)
December Outlook at a Glance:
Direct collapse lower is unlikely, but a straight resumption of the bull trend is equally improbable. Expect mostly sideways/choppy price action before Christmas. With very high probability, the entire December range will stay contained between 6236 and 6850.
Weekly Range Focus:
6500 to 6850, losing 6500 could happen with low probability
Key Levels
Soft Resistance: 6750, Daily EMA 20
Hard Resistance: 6850, top of the zone 1 and top of the bear channel
Support: 6500. If this level is broken though, the bullish fundamental setup will be damaged and potentially lead to a mid-term correction that might last for months.
Macro Events:
GDP and CPI on Wednesday
Actions on Next Monday
Gap-Up or open flat:
if the first bar closes at its high , trader can go long, and the daily target for profit taking could be 6700
Gap-Down:
There is a high chance of retesting the 6550 area again. Bears need to show strong momentum, otherwise 6500 remains strong recent support and it is hard to break through. On the contrary, A clean break and close below 6500 would seriously damage the bullish fundamental setup and lead to a mid-term correction that might last for months.
Monthly Outlook
Trend:
December bias: Mildly bearish.
Higher-timeframe context: The monthly chart remains inside the tight bull channel that began in April. Even if the entire December bar closes as a bear bar, the long-term bull trend stays intact. A sharp, violent sell-off is unlikely. A retest or brief dip toward the 6236 area would still be considered a normal and acceptable pullback within the ongoing bull market.
Patterns:
Current move: Deep pullback inside a tight bull channel.
With only one week left in the month, there’s a high probability the November monthly bar closes below its 50% (midpoint) level.
Price is still far above the monthly 20 EMA; the odds of a correction back toward that EMA (which coincides with the February all-time-high breakout zone) are increasing, possibly extending into January or February.
Key Observations:
Prior to this pullback, we had six consecutive strong bull bars on the monthly chart. One bear bar — no matter how large — does not end the bull market.
Aggressive buyers are likely waiting below current levels, so long-term bullish conviction remains solid.
That said, the probability of retesting the February all-time-high breakout area keeps rising, driven by macro uncertainties (interest-rate path, softening labor market, and widespread overvaluation in risk assets, especially mega-cap tech).
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 6850–6900 zone — making a new all-time high in December is extremely unlikely.
Support: 6236 — the February all-time-high breakout level; this is the key long-term bull-market defense line.
Weekly Outlook
Trend:
Sideways to mildly bullish (short-term bias shifting from bearish to neutral/bullish)
Patterns:
Currently inside a bear channel, but it is far more likely to resolve as a bull flag than as a major trend reversal that triggers a multi-month bear market.
Key Observations:
Last week’s weekly bar closed below its midpoint, yet Friday was strongly bullish — a classic setup that often precedes a significant sentiment shift from bearish to bullish (detailed in the daily outlook).
We now have four consecutive bearish weekly bars, which statistically favors bearish continuation. However, the daily chart is displaying increasingly clear bullish setups, suggesting the higher probability that the bearish channel move is exhausting or already over.
The weekly 20 EMA was holding as support last week, with a high probability of a retest and holds again, but the odds of a decisive break lower into a strong new bear trend remain low.
High chance of 1–2 weeks of sideways/range-bound action directly around the weekly 20 EMA zone (roughly 6480–6550).
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
6800 remains the key near-term upside target for bulls. Longer-term direction is still uncertain, but the top of the current channel (around 6800) is the obvious short-term objective if bulls defend or buy the support zone.
Support:
Strong buying interest expected in the 6480–6550 area. The probability of sustained trading and closing below this zone is low.
Daily Outlook
Trend:
Neutral to slightly bullish
Patterns:
Clear double bottom
Two-legged pullback inside a large trading range
Currently at the bottom of that trading range with support from the daily EMA 50
Key Observations:
Big-picture context: Since breaking the previous all-time high on June 26, the market has transitioned from a tight bull channel into a broad multi-day trading range. Direct, immediate reversals are rare due to market inertia.
At present, the overall setups favor bulls more than bears(see the Weekly Executive Strip section).
The medium-term question for bulls: Will this lead to a sustainable bull-trend resumption or will uncertainty cause bulls to switch to scalping mode, allowing a deeper midterm retest of the old all-time high (~6236 area)?
Personal stance: Happy to be long on a short-term basis, but leaving plenty of mental and positional room for bears to push lower again in the coming months and retest/validate that old all-time-high zone.
Near-term (next week): Slightly bullish or sideways bias most likely. With Christmas approaching and liquidity thinning, a deeper pullback toward the 6236 old ATH remains possible later in December.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
Daily EMA 20 (~7470) – acts as soft, nearby resistance, but given the bullish setups, the odds are low that it holds firmly; it should be relatively easy to break.
6800 – still the primary weekly upside target for bulls.
Support:
6480–6550 zone (bottom of the trading range + daily EMA 50) – strong buying interest expected here. Probability of sustained trade and closes below this area remains low.
5min Reviews for Last Monday
Good Entries:
Monday opened with a clear gap down. As noted in the previous weekly outlook, we were looking to go short if a proper setup and trigger appeared. Bar 37 offered the highest-probability short entry: it formed a double-top step, was accompanied by relatively large bearish bars, and aligned with the overall bias to continue lower. The one-time measured move is expected to complete/target at bar 64.
5min Reviews for Last Tuesday
Good Entries:
The market gapped lower at the open. A short entry on bar 3 was perfectly reasonable, with the initial target being the bottom of Zone 2. Unfortunately, instead of the expected bearish follow-through, the day turned into a tight sideways range. Anyone short from bar 3 would likely have been stopped out around bar 24 or 25 once the trailing stop was hit.
Conversely, going long at bar 37 made sense: downward momentum had clearly stalled, price was retesting the rising trend line from below, and the failed to make a new low. Logical targets were either an AB = CD pattern or a simple one-time measured move upward. But both trades were not easy to capture perfectly in real time, probably a losing day for swing trader.
Overall, what was supposed to be a strong bearish continuation day turned into a non-trending, sideways grind — this significantly calls into question the strength of the prevailing bearish momentum.
5min Reviews for Last Wednesday
Good Entries:
Buying the open was entirely reasonable and consistent with the question outlined in Tuesday’s review. Unfortunately, the anticipated clean bullish trend day never materialised and the session quickly degenerated into yet another sideways range with virtually no follow-through in either direction. As a result, swing traders found no profitable setups and most positions likely closed with small losses (or breakeven at best after slippage and commissions), highlighting the frustrating lack of meaningful momentum this week).
5min Reviews for Last Thursday
Good Entries:
The day opened with a large gap-up directly into the major resistance at 6800. Fundamentally and structurally, shorting was the higher-probability play provided a clean setup appeared, given the exaggerated pre-market rally and the overarching bear channel on the higher-timeframe structure.
What caught me off guard was the sheer strength of the immediate downside follow-through—the market plunged straight to the bottom of Zone 2 with virtually no pause. Closing the short manually along the way (instead of letting a trailing stop do the work) turned what should have been a strong trend-day winner into a significantly less profitable outcome.
5min Reviews for Last Friday
Good Entries:
On the higher timeframe, price has now reached a major support zone, so expecting a long opportunity was perfectly reasonable. The gap-up followed by a successful gap retest and a clear higher low created a classic major-trend-reversal pattern; buying above bar 20 (or more conservatively above bar 2) was therefore a high-probability entry. Using a trailing stop would have preserved most of the profits as the move unfolded. While the measured target at bar 63 was theoretically achievable, capturing the full move as a swing trader relying on a trailing stop is rarely realistic in practice.
