ES Weekly Outlook – 2025 Week 45
Date Range: 3rd, November 2025 to 7th, November 2025
Weekly Executive Strip
Bias:
Neutral with early signs of reversal (not expecting a deep dip). Probability of sideways-to-higher exceeds 50%.
Range Focus:
6776.5 to 7000
Key Levels
Soft Resistance: 6955. If momentum strengthens, a test of 7000 is likely.
Soft Support (Zone 1): 6776.5–6815. A move into this zone should attract strong buying, supported by factors such as a trading-range breakout retest and a Daily EMA20 retest.
Macro Events:
Monday: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Actions on Next Monday
Gap-Up:
If price doesn’t break 6900 with strong momentum, the odds of continued upside are below 50%. Since last Wednesday’s FOMC, 6900 has been a battleground. Despite multiple bullish attempts on Thursday and Friday, continuation failed, and bearish momentum also lacked follow-through.
Options positioning: on Thursday there appeared to be >10k puts open interest at 6850, creating a strong put wall. Hedging flows there were robust, limiting bears’ ability to force a deeper gamma-driven drop—suggesting weak bear momentum during that period. Monitor options OI closely next week for directional cues.
Plan: Without convincing momentum through 6900, and with a put wall below, risk of sideways trade or mild reversal is elevated. Take profits on longs into 6900 on a gap-up and wait for fresh signals.
Gap-Down:
Zone 1 (6776.5–6815) should attract buyers if the market still favors longs, supported by a Daily EMA20 retest and a top-of-range retest. Even if this zone is pierced, the Daily 50-EMA (around ~6700) is another level where bulls may defend.
Plan: If we gap down directly into Zone 1, avoid shorting unless bearish momentum is clearly strong. Alternatively, shorts below 6900 after a failed retest, or a mild gap-down with profit-taking at Zone 1, may be better approaches for Monday.
Monthly Outlook
Trend: Bullish
Patterns:
Parabolic climax with higher monthly volume.
Close in the upper third of the monthly range.
Six consecutive bullish monthly bars—last seen from February to August 2021—within another >400-point range.
Key Observations:
Since April, October posted the highest volume. On a daily breakdown, most of that volume didn’t come from clear bear bars but from sideways sessions (13th–17th) following the large bear bar on the 12th, highlighting a battle zone. The market ultimately printed a new all-time high.
The monthly close in the upper third supports the case for bullish continuation.
Pausing quantitative tightening isn’t an automatic catalyst for further upside; however, the probability of a deep dip-and-reverse appears low into December, barring a materially different signal from the Fed in regards to another round of rate cutting.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
If momentum strengthens, a test of current All-time-high 6955 or even 7000 is likely.
Support:
50% monthly pullback and October monthly open: 6730–6750.
Zone 2: 6420–6550.
Weekly Outlook
Trend: Neutral to mild bearish.
Patterns:
Shooting Star on the weekly bar.
A 1-point gap at 6840 remains unfilled.
Key Observations:
Last week formed a shooting star with a long upper wick and a clear lower tail. While this often flags early reversal risk, the expected magnitude looks limited.
If price pushes decisively through the 6840 gap, look for a mild pullback to retest Zone 1. Between 6840 and ~6800, buying liquidity is likely thin (“vacuum” zone), which can accelerate price into that retest.
The Weekly EMA20 sits well below, currently inside Zone 2. Before price reaches that area, buyers may defend the lower trendline of the tight bull channel.
Absent strong momentum, the market still carries a higher probability of chopping sideways or drifting higher.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
6900: Monitor for another retest. If it breaks again, judge whether bullish momentum is genuinely strong or fades quickly.
Support:
Last week’s low: A clean 1-point break below that low would indicate bears taking temporary control, opening a swift move toward 6800 through the thin-liquidity pocket.
6800: If 6800 fails to hold, look for responsive buying somewhere between Zone 1 and Zone 3.
Daily Outlook
Trend: Neutral to mild bearish.
Patterns:
Three consecutive bearish weekly bars.
Volume is ticking higher.
Lower lows have formed.
Friday’s close < Monday’s open (hence a bearish weekly bar).
Failed breakout from the tight bull channel.
Key Observations:
We again have three straight bearish bars with rising volume, hinting at increasing downside pressure.
The 1-point gap is pivotal as a short-term directional tell.
If defended successfully, price likely rotates back to retest the all-time high.
If price hovers under 6900 through one or more failed bullish attempts, the odds of a downside move rise and that 1-point gap will likely be closed.
Expect multiple defense zones with meaningful buying interest.
Zone 1 includes the 20-EMA and top-of-range, making it the first line of defense.
A break below the 1-point gap likely creates a vacuum of buying down to Zone 1, so a retest of ~6800 is plausible.
Until bears show decisive momentum through Zone 1, shorts should be cautious and tactical (scalps favored).
When a clear long setup appears, don’t hesitate to take it.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
6900: Monitor for another retest. If it breaks again, judge whether bullish momentum is genuinely strong or fades quickly.
Support:
Zone 1 and Zone 3
5min Reviews for Last Monday
Good Entries:
As mentioned in the last post, upon spotting a gap up, enter long with a trailing stop. The daily chart shows a clear one-way bullish trend to the end of the session. Taking profits at the end will yield a single, massive measured-move gain.
5min Reviews for Last Tuesday
Good Entries:
After seeing the two consecutive bear bars with a gap up, short for scalp should be a valid trade. The problem here is, will you really hold to expect a bearish trend? It can be but you will be stopped out with a break even at about bar 36. With such a strong bullish trend in higher time frame, short for scalp might be the better choice without seeing give up bar from bull.
Bar 39 is a good entry for bull, the setup include double bottom and clear breakout with retest. If long above bar 39, one time measure move will be reached at bar 72.
5min Reviews for Last Wednesday
Good Entries:
Another gap up on Wednesday. Going long above bar 3 feels a bit aggressive with the FOMC meeting scheduled later in the session. A tight stop loss on the long would result in a small, acceptable loss at bar 14. If you skip the long, bar 24 offers a solid short entry, but a tight stop there would get stopped out at bar 55.
Bottom line: before FOMC, always anticipate sideways price action as the market waits for the news.
5min Reviews for Last Thursday
Good Entries:
Wednesday's sharp swings drove a spike in volatility, with the Average True Range expanding well beyond normal levels. Strictly adhering to stop-order entry rules would keep you out of any position below bar 2, as bar 3 forms a direct reversal without making a lower low — sparing you a potential loss.
Bars 17 and 24 are both strong short entries. Using the correct stop loss (above bar 7) prevents getting stopped out. The final one-time measured-move target is achieved at bar 78.
5min Reviews for Last Friday
Good Entries:
Thursday was a sideways trading day with a slight downward bias. After the first six bars alternated between bear and bull, shorting at bar 1 should anticipate a reversal and take profits quickly rather than holding for the low-probability bear trend.
Bar 24 clearly signaled that the bull trend lacked strength after testing the 6900 level, followed by two consecutive bear bars—making a short entry much higher-probability. The one-time measured-move target was reached at bar 47, where a reversal (minor or major) could occur—we don’t need to predict it. At minimum, the market was in a sideways state. Going long after bar 51 was reasonable but best treated as a scalp. Although price eventually reversed back to the top of the trading range, it doesn’t clarify the next move. Let’s wait for next week’s open and refer to the weekly Executive Strip in the previous section for the action plan.
