ES

Due to the CPI data coming in lower than expected, the premarket saw a significant surge, creating a substantial opening gap away from 5386.25. The first two bars formed a two-bar reversal pattern, with the high of the bull bar surpassing the high of the bear bar. Given that the opening gap is bullish, there's a high probability that the market will continue to rise

  • Entry: Stop buy 1 tick above the high of the second bar.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 12, which aligns with the upper channel line on the higher timeframe (hourly RTH upper channel line).

Bar 13 is a bullish bar with a long tail, indicating strong buying pressure. However, since it has reached the higher timeframe's upper channel line, shorting 1 tick below Bar 13's low in anticipation of a 50% pullback is a viable strategy.

  • Entry: Stop sell 1 tick below the low of Bar 13.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 22, expecting a 50% pullback.

The market continued within a small trading range after Bar 22 and gradually formed a bearish wedge. Notably, there was no defined boundary for the bearish channel before Bar 48, and as it approached 14:00 CDT (FOMC), it was advised not to trade. After Bar 55, the market formed a lower low but reversed at Bar 56. By then, the bearish channel boundary had been established since Bar 48, making it a good opportunity to go long at Bar 57.opportunity to go long at Bar 57.

  • Entry: Stop buy 1 tick above the high of Bar 56.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 61, which is the channel line. It's advisable to take profit slightly earlier to avoid a potential tick failure, as seen with one tick below the channel line.

CL

Similar to ES, there was a significant opening gap in CL (Crude Oil). However, unlike ES, CL was already hovering around the upper channel line on the higher timeframe, suggesting a high likelihood of filling the gap rather than continuing upwards. Notably, the Crude Oil Inventory report was published at 9:30 CDT, so any orders placed beforehand should have appropriately set stop losses. After Bar 6, the follow-up was weak with a bear bar, and Bar 8 provided further confirmation with another bear bar.

  • Entry: Stop sell 1 tick below the low of Bar 8.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 19 (gap closure).

Since Bar 20, a lower low double bottom major trend reversal began forming. Bars 22-23 formed the first leg (L1), and Bar 24 formed the second leg (L2). It's preferable to enter at L2, which would be executed at Bar 26.

  • Entry: Stop buy 1 tick above the high of Bar 24.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 38 (50% pullback).

The market attempted to fill the gap, but from Bar 45, a very long tail above was observed, followed by an immediate reversal at Bars 46 and 47. This scenario provided a potential setup for a double top higher low major trend reversal, which materialized at Bar 54.

  • Entry: Stop sell 1 tick below the low of Bar 54.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 71 (1 measured move).

GC

GC opened within the gap on the higher timeframe, and with the first bar, it indicated that it would at least test the low of the gap again.

  • Entry: Stop sell 1 tick below the low of Bar 1.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 2.

After Bar 2, a trading range formed, followed by a lower high double bottom major trend reversal.

  • Entry: Stop buy 1 tick above the high of Bar 14.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 24 (based on the trading range) or Bar 46 (based on a 1 measured move).

For a short entry later:

  • Entry: Stop sell 1 tick below the low of Bar 48.

  • Target Price (TP): Bar 55 (low of the gap).