Market Analysis 2024-06-18
ES
Note: There is a high probability that if the previous day was a trend day, the current day could be a trading range day.
The market opened with a small bull gap, and the first bar is a large bull bar. The second bar is also a bull bar, but its body is small and it has a long tail. Although placing a stop order above bar 2 might seem reasonable, it turns out to be a trap. Seeing that the third bar is a bear bar with a long tail as well, and considering that the current day follows an extremely bullish day previously, the market is likely to be a trading range day. With this in mind, the appearance of the bearish bar with a long tail at bar 3 suggests that a Buy Low, Sell High scalping strategy should be considered.
CL
CL also formed a trading range day, the only difference comparing to ES is the range of the trading range.
GC
GC is different compared to CL and ES. The previous day was bearish and reversed to the middle of the previous day's high and low. The market opens with a small bearish gap, but it is filled by the first bar. Trading GC today is challenging because some signals and contexts are traps. For example, going long 1 tick above bar 5 is problematic; if the stop is set at the low of bar 5 instead of the low of bar 1, the position will be wiped out.