Sentiment: Neutral

Previous Weekly Analysis:

Monthly Chart(Bullish):

There isn’t much change on the monthly chart. After the second week (0609–0613), we observed that the bulls attempted to extend the uptrend by pushing prices higher. However, the formation of a long upper wick suggests potential weakness—indicating either a minor pullback or the beginning of a trend reversal. Further details will be analyzed in the following sections.

While this year’s target remains around 6700, geopolitical uncertainties still present downside risks. There is a possibility that the price could retest the 5100 level, representing a 50% pullback from the previous major wave. However, based on the current setup, there is still a reasonable chance that the price could reach at least 6150 this month.

Weekly Chart(Slightly Bullish):

Last week, we pointed out that due to the gap-up on 0512, the bullish trend continued as a trading range (TR) for four weeks. It resembled more of a bullish channel rather than a flat TR, as higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) were forming.

This week, the market indeed printed a new HH and HL, continuing the bullish channel. However, there are a few key numbers that raise some concerns:

1. The first big bar in the TR reached a high of 5977.75, and with the continuation of the bullish channel, the HH after four weeks reached 6074.75—still leaving room to reach 6150.

2. This week’s close is still 0.25 tick above the high of the first weekly bar in the TR, indicating that the bulls are still attempting to sustain the trend.

3. The weekly bar is a bear bar, with a long upper tail and a close in the lower 1/3 of the range—suggesting that bears are also trying to push prices down. (However, note that the second weekly bar in this TR was also a large bear bar, yet there was no bearish follow-through.)

Summary:
The probability of the bullish channel continuing and reaching at least 6150 remains above 50%. The key exception would be if, on Monday or Tuesday, the price falls below 5925, which would signal a failed TR breakout. Even in that case, the Weekly EMA 20 (5800) and EMA 50 (5750) are expected to act as support levels.

Daily Chart(Bearish at opening):

Last week, we analyzed the daily chart and suggested that the price had the potential to test the daily EMA 20. Indeed, this was tested during the premarket session on Friday. Although the price later rebounded and formed a lower high (LH) above 6000, the latter part of the session turned into a bear trend, with both LHs and lower lows (LLs) forming. (More details will be discussed in the 5-minute chart section.)

Here are some key setups to highlight:

1. Since the 0512 big gap-up and strong bull bar, we’ve noted that the market has been in a bull channel. However, a shift toward a flat trading range (TR) is becoming more evident, marked by three pushes up and a double top (DT) during the last push on Wednesday and Thursday. Notably, an expanding triangle formed on Thursday, increasing the likelihood of a failed breakout (BO) from the TR.

2. There’s a reasonable chance that next week’s open could still be bearish, given that Friday’s close was below Thursday’s low.

3. It remains uncertain whether the daily EMA 20 will be broken decisively on Monday, but if it is, it would confirm the formation of a broader TR.

Summary:
Monday could open with a gap down and retest the 5925–5936 zone. If this level holds, the price may still have the potential to climb toward 6150. Otherwise, the weekly EMA 20 (~5800) and EMA 50 (~5750) are expected to provide support.

5mins Chart:

Next Monday may not be easy to trade, especially given that the 5-minute EMA ribbon currently shows a bearish arrangement, while multiple potential support levels lie just below. Last Friday, despite a large gap down, there was still noticeable bullish sentiment—with buyers attempting to close the gap, although that effort ultimately failed.

Importantly, the 5-minute chart shows a potential three pushes down pattern. Given the lingering bullish sentiment, the probability of a reversal back into a bull channel is still greater than 50%.

It’s best to stick with the weekly and daily analysis, and wait to see how the Monday premarket and opening play out before deciding on a trading strategy. At this point, longing seems to offer a better risk-reward profile than shorting.