Sentiment: Bullish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

It’s been three weeks since I last updated my market analysis. Although I continued trading as usual, I didn’t have the time to follow up with a review. Now, I want to reflect on where my expectations after 2025-05-19 went wrong.

Previously, I emphasized that the market was likely to turn bearish starting from 2025-05-12, due to weakening momentum on the daily chart from 2025-05-05 to 2025-05-09 and the potential formation of a double top(see in the daily chart below). I expected at least a retest of the 04/20 high (the "tariff high"). I also noted that if there were a gap up, it would be better to scalp rather than hold a long position. But I was wrong.

On 2025-05-12, there was a big gap up, and the market followed through with a strong, full-day bullish trend(see below in the daily chart section). This price action clearly suggested that the market was in agreement with pushing to find a more reasonable high rather than pulling back—bearish pressure did not gain traction.

Monthly Chart(Bullish):

From the monthly chart, it’s clear that the market remains in a bull trend. Based on the AB=CD pattern, the projected target for this year could potentially be around 6700.

Looking at recent price action, May closed with a strong bullish bar that had a small upper wick—indicating that sellers have not yet returned in force. As for June, the current bar is forming near its high, suggesting continued bullish momentum. This implies the market is still aiming for a higher high (HH), with the next potential targets being either the top of the trendline around 6180 or the all-time high at 6238.25.

Weekly Chart(Bullish):

The most important takeaway from the weekly chart is this: once a trend is established, never trade against it. Even though I trade intraday, the direction of the weekly trend remains highly relevant. Every trend carries inertia and is more likely to continue than to reverse immediately.

Looking at the weekly chart from 2025-05-12 to 2025-06-06, we can observe the following:

1. The gap up on 2025-05-12 was a key event—it closed well above the 20-week EMA. Although the following week (2025-05-19) produced a bearish bar, the low of that week remained above the low of 2025-05-12. This price structure reflects bullish inertia, showing that buyers were still in control and willing to accumulate more.

2. The first three weeks appeared to be forming a trading range (TR), but upon closer inspection, it was more likely a bull channel, as higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) were developing. The breakout last week was significant—it closed at the high and printed a new HH within the channel, increasing the probability of continued upside.

While it's still unclear whether this will be a fake BO and evolve into a double top or lead to a pullback to the weekly EMA20, the probability of continued upward movement is currently higher.

Daily Chart:

Looking at the daily chart, several key points need to be emphasized:

1. 2025-05-12 marked a clear structural shift in the market. I should have adjusted my bias immediately after seeing that strong bullish bar. It was a big gap up that closed at the high (5868.25), even exceeding the low of January 13 (5861.5). These signals clearly indicated that the bulls were taking control and aiming to push prices higher.

2. Observing the EMA ribbon, after four weeks of progression, the current alignment is now close to a fully bullish configuration—another confirmation of strengthening trend momentum.

3. While the market was in a trading range over the past four weeks, higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) were forming. The bar on Friday, 2025-06-06 appears to be a breakout (BO) attempt. Although it's still uncertain whether the breakout will succeed, even if a pullback (PB) occurs, it’s unlikely to be deep—suggesting strong underlying bullish pressure.

Target levels:

• Bullish scenario (based on measured move): 6123 (trendline resistance) to 6251 (all-time high, ATH)

• Bearish scenario: 5867 (a return to the trading range and potential test of the EMA20)

5mins Chart(0602-0606):

5983 is a critical level. If Monday opens with a gap down below 5983, I anticipate the market will likely test 5876-5922(Multiple Support Areas based on MM). However, if the market holds above 5983, it is more probable that it will attempt to move upward toward at least 6123.

Conclusion: Short for scalp and Long for Swing