Sentiment: Slightly Bullish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

Monthly Chart(Neutral):

The monthly chart shows little change compared to last week's chart, with bullish momentum persisting following the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Powell signaled a dovish stance on lowering interest rates in the coming months, as interpreted by Wall Street. Despite this, the probability of reaching 6,700 in the coming months remains high, according to market makers (MM). However, I am skeptical that the momentum will sustain this month to close above the current all-time high of 6,509, due to the following factors:

• Resistance based on the monthly/weekly trend line.

• Four consecutive bullish months, with upper tails in July and lower tails in August, suggesting a potential trading range (TR) before a breakout (BO) toward the 6,700 high.

• Potential "sell the news" reaction.

• Additional insights can be found in the weekly, daily, and 5-minute charts.

Weekly Chart(Neutral):

Without looking at the Daily Chart but only glancing at the Weekly, we can see the market has formed a lower high (LH) and a lower low (LL). However, it still managed to close near its highs. Combined with the Jackson Hole Symposium speech (a major event), this suggests the market is more likely to struggle for direction rather than continue smoothly higher in a bullish trend.

I’ll dive into the details using the Daily and 5-minute charts, but without a new all-time high (ATH) and strong follow-through, and given the context of channel resistance, the probability of a pullback is slightly higher than that of trend continuation. Depending on the depth of the pullback, it could test the 6200–6300 range (a breakout retest while still forming a higher low and holding the weekly 20 EMA), or possibly drop as far as 6000.

Daily Chart(Neutral):

Last week, the market played out largely as I expected at first — pulling back to around 6400 before continuing higher in line with the bullish trend. What I didn’t anticipate was the strength of the momentum after the Jackson Hole Symposium, which pushed the market to close above the weekly open, leaving behind a strong bullish weekly bar.

The key question for the coming week(s) is: can the market push to a higher high (HH) without hesitation after last Friday’s big bull bar? I’m doubtful, and here’s why:

• The price action inside the red box shows two legs, with the second leg being particularly strong.

• There’s trendline resistance visible for traders following the monthly/weekly/daily charts.

• The broader narrative (rates potentially being reduced) is gradually materializing, but the market looks like it needs a break.

So, if next Monday or Tuesday fails to produce clear follow-through and a new ATH, the probability of a pullback toward the 6200–6300 zone is higher than that of an immediate bullish continuation.

That said, a pullback here does not mean the bull trend is over — we are still in a bullish trend overall.

5mins Chart(Slightly Bullish):

On Monday, the market continued sideways in a bear flag. Unfortunately, on Tuesday the lower trendline failed to hold, leading to a downside breakout. After testing the 6370–6400 zone, price went sideways again.

The only significant momentum came on Friday, driven by the Jackson Hole Symposium speech. The market broke above the upper trendline resistance (red line and which has now turned into support).

Heading into Monday, the key question is whether this red-line support will continue to hold and allow the market to push for a new ATH. If not, the probability increases for a pullback to retest the 6400 level (the starting point of Friday’s rally). This could also develop into a trading range.

If that range isn’t strong enough to hold, then a deeper move toward 6200–6300 — as outlined in the Daily Chart analysis — becomes more likely.