Sentiment: Conservative Bullish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

Monthly Chart(Conservative Bullish):

The monthly bar closed at its peak, following four consecutive bullish monthly bars after a significant sell-off in April. This suggests the market is in a strong "Always In Long" trend. However, the question remains: can the market reach the 6,700 target (Structured Measured Move) without a pullback? I remain skeptical, and further analysis on daily and 5-minute charts is needed.

Key points to consider:

• Resistance from the monthly/weekly trend line.

• Four straight bullish months, with upper tails in July and lower tails in August, indicating a potential trading range (TR) or at least a Broader Bull Channel before a breakout (BO) toward 6,700.

• On lower time frames, higher lows (HL) and higher highs (HH) are still developing(Broader Bull Channel)

Weekly Chart(Slightly Bearish):

The weekly bar closed bearishly, which also caused the monthly chart's closing price to end lower than that of week 35. My analysis from last week here proved accurate (though I'm still struggling with intraday trades). Week 36 formed a higher high (HH) and higher low (HL), unlike the previous week. In my earlier assessment of market behavior, I noted that week 35 featured a lower high (LH) and lower low (LL), likely establishing a trading range. However, after week 36, it's clear the bulls stayed resilient, nudging the price slightly higher to a new all-time high (ATH). As I mentioned, the bulls recognize the formidable resistance at this level based on the overall market structure. In this context, the weekly bearish close can be viewed as a failed breakout (BO), creating a double top pattern with the potential to reverse the market downward to the 6360 level—or even further to 6200.

Daily Chart(Slightly Bearish): Trade like a Broader Bull Channel or TR

Last week proved difficult for intraday trading due to an unclear trend. As I mentioned, if Monday or Tuesday failed to set a new all-time high (ATH) with strong follow-through, the chances of a pullback (PB) would rise. However, the ATH was hit on Thursday, complicating intraday trading decisions. I attribute this to the robust bullish trend on higher time frames, with bulls eagerly buying any pullbacks. That said, I expect a potential shift in market structure next week, given the failed breakout (BO) to the ATH, Friday’s close at its low, below Thursday’s open and the direct reverse after making new ATH with very limited increments. Bears will still face challenges, as bulls remain committed to defending support levels. (Note: The market is currently in a broader bullish channel before potentially transitioning to a trading range.)

Key levels to monitor:

• 20 EMA at 6440

• Bottom of the Jackson Hole big bull bar at 6370

• Bottom of the trading range at 6200–6260

5mins Chart(Slightly Bearish): Trade like a Broader Bull Channel or TR

• Intraday trading should treat the market as a broader bull channel. Without a strong opening on Monday that closes the gap between 6500–6515, the likelihood of the market dropping to test the daily 20 EMA at 6440 is high.

• Expect significant buying pressure between 6400–6440, as bulls aim to prevent a lower low (LL) that would disrupt the broader bullish channel structure.

• If bears manage to break the 6400 support, the price could swiftly decline to 6370 and potentially reach 6200 with minimal resistance.

Looking ahead

• If we see a strong bullish open on Monday (for instance, a gap up that quickly rallies through 6500–6515), that would invalidate much of Friday’s bearishness and put the bulls back in charge intraday. In that case, short-term traders should resume trading with the bull trend (buying pullbacks).

• Alternatively, if Monday’s open is weak or cannot fill any gap down, expect the market to continue Friday’s downward drift and test the next supports. A lack of immediate strength increases the probability of a drop toward the daily 20 EMA (6440) and possibly through it to the 6400 level. Given how Friday closed, the path of least resistance early in the week may be a quick dip to test that 6400 handle. We know buyers have been active in the 6400–6440 zone, so a test there could lead to a sharp intraday bounce as bulls buy the dip. Scalpers and day traders can attempt small longs near those supports, but must be nimble.

• If 6400 decisively breaks on an intraday basis (with strong selling volume and weak bounces), then a cascade lower could unfold. Below 6400 there isn’t much clear support until the 6370 area, so the market could slide relatively fast to ~6370. And if 6370 doesn’t hold at least temporarily, bears might push the ES further down toward the 6200s with surprisingly little resistance (since that would basically fill the late-August breakout gap). In such a scenario, intraday traders should be prepared for trend-day bearish price action.

Seasonally, early September can be weaker. Thus a choppy, range-bound week with a slight downward bias (to test supports) is a reasonable expectation. From a trading perspective, that translates to selling rallies near resistance and buying dips near support, until a breakout either way occurs.