Sentiment: Slightly Bearish

Previous Week Analysis:

Weekly Chart:

Last week, the weekly bar closed at its low, with a long tail formed on Tuesday, the first trading day of the week. From the weekly chart, it is evident that the market remains in a broad bull channel. However, there is still room for the market to consolidate downward toward the lower boundary of the channel. While it's uncertain when this consolidation will occur in the coming week, there is a high probability of either a trading range forming near the bottom of the channel or a direct reversal.

If the market finds support in the range of 5800 to 5600, or even as low as 5400, a reversal attempt is likely. That said, within this strong bearish "Always in Short" setup within the broader bull channel, the sentiment remains bearish. Nonetheless, after observing consolidation price action, traders should prepare for a potential bullish reversal, provided there are no significant fundamental changes.

Daily Chart

Friday’s close below Tuesday’s low indicates that the bears are strong and aiming to push prices lower in the coming week. It will be crucial to observe whether this breakout (BO) is successful. As noted in the weekly analysis, if the breakout holds and the price continues to decline, there is no clear bottom yet, though theoretical support levels exist around 5800, 5600, and 5400.

Without a consolidation phase, such as the formation of a trading range (TR), any reversal attempts are likely to fail. The market may need to establish a base before a sustained reversal can occur.

5 Mins Chart

On the 5-minute and 15-minute charts, a nested wedge pattern is forming. The blue wedge represents three pushes within a larger wedge shape, and each leg of the blue wedge contains its own smaller wedge. Over the past two weeks, all previous gaps have been filled except for Gap 1 and Gap 2. Gap 1 serves as evidence that the market is in a bear trend, while Gap 2, created last Friday, remains unfilled.

If Gap 2 proves difficult to close, the nested wedge pattern will likely be invalidated. However, if the pattern holds, the projected bottom should be in the range of 5781 to 5900. Gap 2 is a critical resistance level for the bulls to overcome. Successfully closing this gap would signal to the market that the bulls are regaining control and could shift sentiment towards a bullish reversal.

S & R

Support

• 5781.75

Resistance

1. 5921

2. 5971