Sentiment: Slightly Bullish

Previous Week Analysis:

Weekly Chart:

Last week’s analysis was clear and straightforward. From the perspective of weekly bars, the broader bull channel is still intact and likely to persist for a few more weeks. However, there are signs that the trend is shifting from a broader bull channel to a trading range. This increases the probability of bulls taking profits if the price reaches a new high around 6200. Additionally, it’s worth monitoring whether the price can even reach the previous high, as there’s a significant chance a trading range is forming along the way.

Key evidence includes:

1. In early November, there were two pushes upward that resulted in an all-time high (ATH), followed by an immediate sell-off.

2. The sell-off was characteristically strong, with two distinct legs (which, on daily or 5-minute charts, form a wedge bear channel with three downward pushes).

3. The second leg, two weeks ago, was particularly strong. However, the price rebounded sharply last week.

While anticipating further upward movement is reasonable, it’s essential to be prepared for take-profit opportunities and potential reversals. From a risk-reward perspective, waiting for a short setup might be a better strategy.(Pay attention to the yellow box trading range)

Daily Chart

From the daily chart, there were 4 bull bars in 5 trading days, indicating a strong bull trend. The bearish bar on Thursday is likely a take-profit bar for the bulls, rather than an entry bar for bears. Even when trading based on daily bars, there was no follow-through bearish bar on Friday, and no stop orders for bears would have been triggered. This suggests the bulls remain in firm control of the market.

At the same time, the market has been consolidating over the past month, forming a bear channel within the broader bull channel. The bear channel is relatively broad, and after three pushes down, there is a high probability that bulls will attempt to test the start of the bear channel, which is around 6100.

As noted in the weekly bar analysis, the likelihood of upward movement next week remains high. However, the range between 6100 and 6180 will serve as a strong resistance zone. Observing the price action in this area will be critical to determine whether the bull trend resumes or if a trading range is taking shape.

5 Mins Chart

As analyzed last week, after three pushes down, the market chose to reverse rather than continue downward. Monday opened with a gap down, but the price found support immediately. After three attempts to push lower, it formed a bull trend and closed near its high. This first trading day signaled a potential reversal to an uptrend.

On Tuesday, the market opened with a gap up. While the first half of the regular trading hours (RTH) was a bear trend, it eventually formed a higher low (HL) and transitioned into a trading range (TR), increasing the probability of a stronger bull trend.

The remaining three trading days showed continued bullish strength, with two more gap-up openings. On Friday, the price broke out (BO) above the trendline and did not retest, further reinforcing bullish momentum.

These developments suggest that the bulls are in control, and pullbacks (PBs) present good buying opportunities, particularly around the tops of gaps 2 and 3. The likelihood of the price moving up to test gap 1 is high, though a pullback might occur before reaching it.

S & R

For an intraday trading strategy next week, consider buying pullbacks and taking profit around gap 1. Avoid initiating short trades unless a double top forms as confirmation.

• Resistance: 6068, 6100

• Support: 5975, 5950(Note if without going up and direct break 5950, the bull trend should be over and looking for bear trend directly)