Sentiment: Neutral

Previous Week Analysis:

Weekly Chart:

There isn’t much new to add from a weekly chart perspective, as this week’s price action largely aligns with last week’s analysis. The weekly bar closed above the 50% mark of its range and continues to form lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) within a converging triangle, which remains part of the broader bull channel.

However, the weekly bar alone can be misleading. At first glance, it appears bullish, closing as a bull bar with a lower wick, which might suggest strong buying pressure and an increased likelihood of a bullish week ahead. Yet, when examining the daily and 5-minute charts, the price action reveals more complexity. This leads me to interpret the overall market sentiment as neutral rather than outright bullish.

Trading Strategy from Weekly Chart Perspective:

• Bidirectional Trading, Swing is OK but need to be cautious about PB and deep PB

• Probably there is still space to try to test the bottom of the converging triangle(5850-5900). If bear is strong enough, the support could be 5800 or even the bottom of the TR which is 5781.75

Daily Chart

As analyzed last week, the daily chart from a week ago indicated bearish momentum following Friday’s close, leading me to expect a direct move toward a test of 5800. In reality, before Monday’s open, there was a significant gap down, testing the last remaining bull gap within the trading range. However, despite this initial drop, the entire week played out as a bull channel when viewed on the 5-minute chart. Given the sustained bullish momentum over the past few months, it’s evident that buyers haven’t given up, and overall market sentiment remains bullish.

The key takeaway here, once again, is that the trend is your friend—never be afraid to follow it and never try to fight against it.

From a bar-to-bar perspective within the converging triangle, the price has made three pushes down, followed by two pushes up and two more pushes down. With Friday’s close near its low, there is a high probability that a third push down is underway. I anticipate this move will test the bottom of the remaining gap within the triangle, around 5900. However, similar to last week, this test could occur before Monday’s open or at any point during the week, either in ETH or RTH. After testing this level, a bullish rebound is likely, though the extent of the bounce remains uncertain. Overall, based on recent price action, the market continues to favor the bulls.

Trading Strategy from Daily Chart Perspective:

• Monitor the price action closely to assess whether there is strong momentum to break below 5900 and extend further downward.

• If the price never retests 5900—the bottom of the open gap—consider taking long positions, but always set a take-profit (TP) to avoid being caught in a sudden deep pullback.

5 Mins Chart

On the 5-minute chart, last week clearly followed a bull channel. However, when expanding the view to the last 2-3 weeks, the pattern becomes more evident as an expanding wedge. Lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) were formed within this wedge, and upon closer inspection, both extended slightly beyond the channel lines, reinforcing the expanding wedge structure.

Trading last week was challenging primarily because the overall sentiment remained bearish(at least I thought like that), while daily price action appeared bullish. This highlights the importance of trading within the trend of your specific timeframe. While it's crucial to acknowledge higher-timeframe setups, they shouldn’t blind you—support and resistance levels from the higher timeframe matter, but if you trade based on the 5-minute chart, your setups should be based on that timeframe.

On Friday, the price closed near its low, attempting to test the 50% pullback of the entire week but failing, leaving a 10-point gap. Heading into next week, the key level to watch is 6030. Whether the price breaks below this level will largely determine the likelihood of a third push down toward 5900. If the price consolidates above 6030 or 6000 instead, the structure shifts into a two-push-down pattern with a higher low (HL) major trend reversal, increasing the probability of resuming the bullish trend and making a new all-time high (ATH).

Trading Strategy from 5 mins Chart Perspective:

• Trade based on 5 mins chart only and think about the higher time frame price action as the big pictures/setups for S/R only.

• Key price include 6030/6000 for bullish/ bearish determination