Sentiment: Slightly Bullish

Previous Week Analysis:

Last week was quite challenging. I was overly influenced by my own analysis and didn’t strictly follow the signals and setups from a 5-minute perspective, which resulted in PB of the profits. In my previous post, I highlighted 6030/6000 as key levels for bullish or bearish confirmation, but I didn’t anticipate:

1. The early ETH session on Monday would see a deep pullback, directly testing the 6000 - 6030 (6013) zone.

2. After that, the market shifted into a strong one-sided trend, with the weekly bar closing at its high.

Weekly Chart:

From a weekly perspective, the market is still within a converging triangle. However, the bullish momentum has been quite strong. Given this setup, I expect buyers to push the price higher, attempting to break out of the converging triangle, transition from the red channel to the blue channel, and potentially reach a new all-time high (ATH). However, the extent of this move remains uncertain—it could either extend to a measured move (MM) up or form a new channel that eventually reverses sharply, targeting the lower red trendline.

At the same time, there is another key scenario to watch. Within the current converging triangle, after three upward pushes, there is still a strong possibility that the price will return to the triangle’s range instead of breaking out.

Trading Strategy from Daily Chart Perspective:

• Monitor the ETH sessions closely to assess whether the market has enough momentum to break above the triangle’s channel line and reach a new ATH.

• Be prepared for a deep pullback, but only act on it if there is clear bearish momentum—otherwise, the primary trend remains bullish

Daily Chart

Over the past two weeks, the daily chart has shown significant overlap, indicating a trading range. Within this range, there have been both an expanding triangle (purple lines) and a converging triangle (green lines). The current chart setup favors the bulls.

As outlined in the weekly chart analysis, after breaking out of the converging triangle, the next key targets are:

1. Breaking the resistance levels at the previous high (6147) and the all-time high (ATH) of 6180.25.

2. Making a new ATH, either by following the blue line (weekly flattening channel) or the purple line (daily expanding triangle).

However, it’s also crucial to recognize that within a trading range (TR), particularly after two upward pushes, there is still a possibility that the breakout could fail, leading the price to pull back into the range.

Trading Strategy from Daily Chart Perspective:

• Closely monitor price action during the early ETH session on Monday to gauge potential direction.

• If by the end of Monday’s RTH session, the price does not experience a deep pullback, the likelihood of further upside increases.

• If the market fails to break out after two attempts, bearish momentum could strengthen. Otherwise, holding long positions remains the higher-probability strategy for profit.

5 Mins Chart

The 5-minute chart provides a more detailed view of recent price action.

1. Friday’s close formed a higher high (HH), suggesting a potential successful breakout from the converging triangle(GAP 1).

2. However, Friday’s close did not surpass the previous high (6148, blue line), meaning resistance remains in play.

3. If the deep pullback (PB) on Wednesday is treated as a measured move (MM), the mirror target is around 6170, which is still below the all-time high (ATH).

Trading Strategy from 5 mins Chart Perspective:

• Watch the early ETH session on Monday for price action clues. There’s a possibility that the market will retest the converging triangle, pulling back to around 6100. If the price stabilizes and does not show strong bearish momentum, it’s a good opportunity to go long.

• If the market does not test 6100 and instead moves directly higher, the probability of breaking the 6148 resistance increases significantly, with an initial target of 6170. If a new ATH is made, the next price targets will be 6200 (blue channel) to 6300 (purple channel).

• Keep in mind: Bulls remain stronger than bears!