Sentiment: Neutral

Previous Week Analysis:

I've been consistently writing ES analysis for the past couple of months, and last week's post was the best one I've ever created. Every detail I interpreted from the chart played out exactly as the market moved this week. This feels like a huge milestone! I’m thrilled to see my ability to read charts and anticipate market shifts improving week by week. The progress is undeniable, and I’m more motivated than ever to keep refining my skills and pushing my analysis to the next level!

Weekly Chart:

From a Weekly Chart Perspective, Here Are Some Key Observations:

1. This week's bar follows last week's strong bearish bar, which closed at its low. However, unlike last week, this week's bar closed 0.25 points above the midpoint (5957.5) of the entire weekly range. Does this signal a bullish shift? While it's not enough to draw a definitive conclusion, it does indicate that bears are losing full control, suggesting a potential sideways market ahead.

2. The weekly chart remains in a converging triangle (a type of trading range), with both bulls and bears seemingly in agreement on this setup. Given that the market has been in a bull channel for the past few months and is now transitioning into a converging triangle, the likelihood of an upward move is still slightly higher(But there will be time decay after 4 months, so probably Neutral already)—unless the bears manage to break out of the bottom of the triangle and close at the low with follow-through.

3. Although this week’s bearish bar closed below the 20-period EMA, this alone does not confirm the end of the bull market, especially within a trading range inside a broader bull channel.

Key Takeaways:

1. Watch how the market reacts if it attempts to retest the 20 EMA and the middle of the triangle (5980–6000)—this area should act as key resistance.

2. There is still a possibility of the price dropping without testing the 5980–6000 zone. If that happens, the next support area to watch is 5780–5850.

3. Given the current setup, the weekly trading strategy should favor long positions for swings while using short trades for scalps.

Daily Chart

Daily Chart Analysis: A Clear Bear Trend Within a Converging Triangle

1. Monday’s follow-through bearish bar confirmed further downside potential, breaking below the 20-period EMA. This bearish momentum continued throughout the week, with minimal pullbacks.

2. The overall weekly trend can be broken down into two pushes lower, culminating in a strong bullish bar closing at its high on Friday. Similar to the weekly chart, both bulls and bears appear to acknowledge the converging triangle setup, reinforcing the idea of a trading range.

Key Takeaways:

1. A third push down to test the bottom of the triangle remains a possibility. The key support range to watch is 5780–5850. However, without a decisive breakdown below this zone, it’s premature to conclude a shift toward a bearish market sentiment.

2. If a third push lower does not materialize, the probability of testing the 20 EMA is slightly higher. This is supported by Friday’s strong bullish close and the general agreement that the market remains in a trading range. The key resistance zone is 5972–6030, aligning with the weekly analysis. Notably, 6000–6030 will be a critical battleground—if bulls can break through, they may regain control. Otherwise, a sideways market remains the most likely outcome.

15 Mins Chart

15-Minute Chart Analysis: Bear Channel Within a Trading Range

The last remaining gap in this trading range was closed during the previous session, meaning there is no opening gap left within this structure.

1. There are two possible interpretations of the current 15-minute chart, but both indicate a bear channel within the larger trading range:

   • The red line suggests that a wedge bottom has already formed with a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.

   • The green line implies that there may be one more push down to form a larger wedge before a potential reversal.

   • Regardless of the scenario, looking for long opportunities is the primary focus, especially after Friday's strong bullish close.

2. Resistance remains critical—specifically the 6000–6050 zone, as seen on the 15-minute chart. While there has been strong buying interest, the market is still forming lower highs, with no clear trend reversal from bearish to bullish yet. Typically, before a direct reversal, sideways consolidation is expected.

Key Takeaways:

1. Watch the 20-period EMA (around 5900) on the 15-minute chart. If the price retests and holds this level, the probability of an upward move increases. If it fails, expect a third push down toward 5780–5850 before a potential reversal.

2. If Monday opens near its high and creates an opening gap, the 6000–6030 resistance zone will be crucial. A successful breakout above this area is necessary for bulls to regain control.