Sentiment: Bearish

Previous Week Analysis:

Weekly Chart:

This week was strongly bearish, despite an attempt to test the weekly EMA20 around 6000, which ultimately failed.

1. The weekly bar closed near its lower third, signaling a possible continuation of the downtrend. However, with the bull channel formed in recent weeks/months (see next two sections - Daily and 15-minute charts), there's still less than a 50% chance of a reversal.

2. The converging triangle broke last week, and ES closed below its lower boundary.

3. ES closed at 5772.5, beneath the TR's (yellow box) bottom at 5783, increasing the likelihood of another bearish week.

4. The weekly low of 5673 is below the broader bull channel's trendline (blue), making a retest likely before any upward reversal.

5. In the worst case, the market could drop to around 5400, aligning with a yellow trendline established months ago.

Key Takeaways:

1. Upside Targets: If the market moves up, the weekly target would need to reverse the entire bearish bar, which is unlikely within a single week. Key resistance levels:

   • 5783 – Bottom of the trading range (TR)

   • 5820 – Bottom of the converging triangle

   • 5900 – Weekly EMA20 (uncertain)

   • 6000 – High of the weekly bar

2. Downside Targets: If the downtrend continues, the initial target is 5673 (weekly low), but this level is weak support. A retest increases the probability of further decline, with additional downside targets discussed in the next sections.

Daily Chart:

It’s clearer from the daily chart that the market attempted a reversal on Monday but failed at 6000, leading to strong selling pressure.

1. No single day had a high exceeding the previous day's high, signaling strong selling sentiment, despite frequent overlaps from bulls attempting a reversal (bulls wanted to reverse the market based on the converging triangle and trading range setups).

2. The reversal attempt was minor, but it indicates bulls are starting to push back, suggesting a stronger sideways movement within a broader bearish trend.(Failed)

3. Typically, in a trading range or broader channel, such fluctuations create uncertainty about the next move. However, given the current context and key levels, further downside remains more likely.

Key Takeaways

1. Upside Targets: If Monday closes at its high and above 5853.75 (Thursday’s big bear bar), re-entering the TR/converging triangle, the chance of a bullish/sideway week increases. Key resistance levels are 5783, 5820, and 5950 (daily EMA20).

2. Downside Targets: If Monday fails to close above 5791.25 (Friday’s high), downside probability increases. Targets include:

   • 5673 (Friday’s low retest)

   • 5600, 5500, and potentially 5400 (yellow line).

15 Mins Chart

The 15-minute chart clearly shows that bulls attempted to reverse the market at key levels—the bottom of the converging triangle and trading range—but failed.

1. After Monday’s strong sell-off, the market opened below the triangle’s bottom. Bulls spent three days trying to reverse the market twice but failed both times. Typically, when the market fails twice, the likelihood of moving in the opposite direction increases.

2. On Thursday, the market broke below both the triangle’s bottom and the trading range’s bottom, confirming bearish momentum.

3. Friday’s further decline saw a strong reversal, attempting to retest the trading range’s bottom.

Key Takeaways

1. Monday’s opening level is critical—whether it starts above or below 5766.75 (trading range bottom) will set the tone.

2. Monday’s close is even more important—whether it remains inside 5673–5820 will determine the next market direction.

3. A bullish reversal will be challenging due to strong resistance levels. Besides 5766.75, the only unfilled gap from last week is 5820–5840, aligning with the converging triangle’s bottom.

4. 5874 is the key bull-bear shift level—unless the market breaks above it convincingly, bears remain in control.