Sentiment: Neutral + A Little Bearish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

Weekly Chart:

This week, the last RTH price closed above the 50% mark of the weekly bar—does this signal a bullish comeback? Not necessarily. Given the strong consecutive weekly bearish bars leading up to this, any bullish attempt will likely face significant resistance. More details are covered in the 15-minute chart analysis.

Key Takeaways:

1. There’s a chance this bullish bar is just a pullback, and the coming weeks could remain bearish. The 50% retracement level from August 2024 to the ATH has been tested with strong selling pressure (Other setups for the same resistance will be mentioned in 15 mins chart below).

2. If the bearish trend continues, key support levels to watch are around the trendline (~5500) or potentially lower at 5300 and 5200.

3. A drop below 5200 seems unlikely in the near term. However, if it happens, it could take years for the market to recover back into a sustained bullish phase.

Daily Chart:

This week was mostly sideways, with bulls showing some strength, but their efforts remain insignificant in the context of the prior strong bearish trend. Heading into next week, this consolidation phase could break in either direction, though the odds still favor trend continuation.

Key Takeaways:

1. Selling pressure remains high, particularly around the 50% pullback level on the higher time frame (HTF).

2. Buying pressure is still evident, signaling an intensifying battle between bulls and bears.

3. If next week continues to be sideways, the chances of a bullish reversal increase. Otherwise, the trend remains in favor of the bears.

15 Mins Chart

The 15-minute chart highlights strong resistance (gap above) and weak support (gap below). The probability of retesting the upper gap is below 50%, given that it has already been tested twice, with the second attempt weaker than the first. This suggests that a bear channel might be forming after the sharp bearish trend of the past several weeks.

Observations:

• Monday: Breakout attempt (BO) failed.

• Tuesday: Price held above the lower gap (unexpected), showing temporary bullish strength.(That might be the reason for bull to continue to try to break the strong bear channel accumulated for weeks on Wednesday!)

• Wednesday: Successful breakout sharp bear channel!(Open above the Tuesday's close with big bull bars within the first hours). Although there was a deep PB after 2 pushes up, but as long as seeing the BO again, as a day trader, you should long!!(I did NOT unfortunately...). Finally the market attempted but failed to break through the gap and 50% level.

• Thursday: Another attempt with a higher low (HL) setup, increasing the chance of a bear channel forming.

• Friday: Closed at its high but failed to reach the upper channel resistance.

Key Takeaways:

• If Monday moves into the upper gap(<50% probability depending on the premarket price action on Monday), key resistance is 5880–5900. Without sustaining above this zone, uncertainty remains.

• If Monday fails to enter the upper gap, the chance of heading toward the lower gap is greater than 50%(push up a little bit but failed to BO the bear channel, so going down to test the lower gap).

• High probability of a bear channel, with minor bullish pushes followed by a move back toward the lower gap.(Like point 2)

• If the lower gap is tested, it could act as temporary support. Stronger support levels remain at 5500, 5300, and 5200.