Sentiment: Bearish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

This week continues the bearish trend. As I mentioned in my last post, the overall sentiment was expected to be bearish, and it indeed played out that way! I successfully captured not only the trend but also the target price in the downtrend using MM. While I still struggle with day trading, most of my expectations were fulfilled by the market.

Weekly Chart:

Weekly Chart Analysis

Since the beginning of 2024, the market has been in a bullish trend, but the momentum has weakened with each push higher. Looking at the weekly chart, several key observations emerge:

1. Three-Push Setup Uncertainty

   • There are two possible three-push setups since August 2024, represented by the red and purple lines on the chart.

   • It is unclear which setup defines the true three pushes, making the market bottom uncertain.

2. Failed Bullish Attempts Post-ATH

   • After reaching an all-time high (ATH), the market attempted to resume the bullish trend twice but failed.

   • A false breakout occurred on February 18, 2025, reinforcing the weakness in bullish momentum.

3. Four Consecutive Bearish Bars

   • The past four weekly candles have been bearish, with relatively large bodies.

   • The first and third bars have small tails, while the second and fourth bars have long tails, indicating failed bullish reversal attempts (pullbacks).

Key Takeaways

1. Bearish Continuation Probability

   • The weekly candle closed below the 50% mark, increasing the likelihood of further downside.

2. Possible Retest of Trend Start (5500)

   • The purple trendline around 5500 may have already been tested, suggesting some level of support.

3. Further Downside Still Possible (5220)

   • Although less likely, the market could still drop further to test 5220 before finding solid support.

4. Broad Bull Channel Support (5300-5360)

   • A broader bull channel (red line) could act as key support around 5300.

5. Downtrend Support Zone: 5300-5500

   • The most probable support range for this downtrend lies between 5300 and 5500.

6. Upside Target: 5850

   • If the market reverses upward, resistance and potential bullish continuation could be around 5850.

Daily Chart:

Since February 19, 2025, there have been only two notable bullish bars with strong bodies, indicating potential support levels:

• February 28, 2025

• This Friday’s bar (March 14, 2025)

However, in a bearish trend, a strong bullish bar alone does not guarantee a trend reversal. This was evident after the February 28 bull bar, where the market closed at its high but failed to sustain momentum the following Monday (March 3, 2025). That session saw an upward attempt that was rejected, leaving a long upper tail, followed by further downward movement.

This means that if NEXT Monday’s bullish attempt fails again, the market could continue its downtrend.

Key Takeaways

1. Stronger Bullish Signal Compared to Late February

   • A key difference between the February 24–28 price action and this week's setup is that Friday’s bullish bar closed above Tuesday’s high, increasing the probability of a bullish continuation on Monday.

2. Multiple Resistance Levels Ahead

   • Even if Monday turns bullish, the market faces several resistance levels:

     • 5670 – High of the recent trading range

     • 5750 – High of the March 3 bull/bear bar

     • 5850-5859 – Key resistance level from the weekly chart

3. Potential Downside Scenarios

   • If the market moves lower, 5500 remains a valid support, given its round number significance and role as the trend start.

   • However, if the bearish breakout is strong, support may not hold until 5300(5360), aligning with the weekly analysis.

15 Mins Chart

For the first time in this bearish trend, the market is holding above the 100 EMA but remains below the 200 EMA—a key zone that could influence the next move.

Additionally, Gap 1 and Gap 2 serve as significant resistance levels that bulls must overcome in the coming week.

Looking at the broader picture of the 5500-5850 range(lower 50% of the entire bear trend), there have been two or three downward pushes. It is unclear whether the third leg has already occurred. However, even if it has, the expected price action would be a push upward followed by a retest of the breakout low.

• If the market holds above this level for at least two days(or two times), it would confirm a bullish reversal.

• Otherwise, the downtrend is likely to continue.

Key Takeaways

1. Bullish Scenario (Monday Opens Higher)

   • If Monday opens strong, the market is likely to push towards Gap 2 (5710-5760).

   • After reaching this level, a reversal is expected to test Gap 3 (5550-5565).

     • If support holds strongly, the probability of a sustained bull trend increases significantly.

     • If support fails, the bearish target would extend at least to 5360.

2. Bearish Scenario (Monday Opens at the Same Level or Lower with a Gap Down)

   • If Monday opens flat or gaps down, the chance of a bearish move increases.

   • Gap 3 (5550-5565) may not provide strong support but still has a possibility of holding.

   • The first downside target remains 5360 if the bearish momentum continues.