Sentiment: Bearish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

This week played out exactly as I anticipated in last week's analysis. However, I still made several mistakes by not following my own rules.

Investing:

1. Avoid trading outside RTH:
   I shouldn't place orders outside of Regular Trading Hours, yet I did — at least two of the stocks I bought were executed that way.

2. No clear bull bar, no buy:
   I’ve mentioned before that I should never buy without a clear bull bar. Still, I bought at least three stocks without proper setups, even after reminding myself of this rule last week.

3. Separate investing from intraday trading:
   Intraday trading is not the same as investing based on the daily chart. If I want to make long-term investment decisions, I should only execute them during RTH — ideally in the later part of the session. While intraday behavior can guide timing, the actual decision to buy or sell must come from daily or weekly chart analysis. Once a decision is made, I need to act with confidence — because the reasoning is based on the higher timeframe, not on intraday price action.

Intraday Trading:

1. Review past days’ behavior:
   I haven’t been reviewing the previous 5 days of price action before trading — which is essential to understanding current market context.

2. Follow and reevaluate weekly analysis:
   I failed to consistently review the observations I made in last week’s analysis. Regardless of whether they’re correct or not, I should check them each day before trading and reevaluate them as needed.

3. Trust my preparation and analysis:
   Sometimes I lacked confidence in entering or exiting trades — even when I had already anticipated that behavior through prior analysis. I need to trust my preparation more and act with conviction.

Monthly Chart:

According to the monthly chart, the market looks far from healthy. Once again, I ended up trapping myself.

Looking at the price action from 2022 to now, we’ve seen three major pullbacks — in 2020, 2023, and now in 2025:

• 2020: A sharp retracement of about 1,200 points, roughly 31% from ATH.

• 2023: A pullback of around 1,300 points, about 25% from ATH.

• 2025 (current): So far, about 1,150 points, or 19% from ATH.

Each of the previous pullbacks ended up retracing close to 50% of the move, and current one is starting to look even worse(at least now closed below 50%). But the only silver lining is that this month is just beginning — there’s still a chance for bulls to step in and stabilize the price above 5,000.

If the market manages to hold around current levels, we could see sideways consolidation over the next few weeks rather than a clear bearish continuation. But if the price breaks below 5,000 decisively this month, it will be tough to recover a bullish structure anytime soon — possibly for years.

Key Takeaways

1. Do NOT buy anything right now!
   Wait for a clear bull trend before entering again. If you’re going to buy, buy the strong setups — assets on the right side of the chart, not the left. Be patient and wait for second entries, not first guesses.

2. Expect a sideways market —
   We may be in for several weeks of consolidation. Ideally, that would give the market a chance to find support, but be prepared for chop and indecision.

Daily Chart:

After attempting to form a double bottom from Monday to Wednesday, the market collapsed. Wednesday was a TRAP! I've studied price action for over a year now — I recognized the trap and actually traded well on Thursday. But I failed to trust myself on Friday, and couldn't maintain my conviction.

I need to be more confident in my price action read and trust what I’ve learned through experience and study.

Key Takeaways

1. Wednesday’s collapse and close at the low signaled strong bearish intent. The probability of continued downside was clearly above 50% — and that’s exactly what played out.

2. Thursday opened below Tuesday’s close, confirming strong selling pressure. This increased the likelihood of a measured move (MM) completion — something I should’ve trusted more.

3. Friday’s close was well below 1x MM and broke the AB=CD structure from ATH. The market only found temporary support around 5100, which is not likely a strong support zone.

4. There’s still a high chance that the market will test 5000 — a more significant level. While 5100 may be a trendline support, the price action suggests we might get a bear trap next week — one more push down to 5000 before any real bounce.

5. If 5000 doesn’t hold and price drops below it without strong support, then the bear market will be firmly in control — and a meaningful recovery may not be possible in the coming months.

15 Mins Chart:

Not much new to add from the 15-minute chart. As mentioned earlier, Thursday opened below Monday’s low and formed a double top, though the day itself wasn’t particularly bearish. However, Friday opened even lower — below the 1x measured move (MM) — which significantly increased the probability of further downside. The market followed through exactly as expected.

Key Takeaways

1. Key support is around 5000, but in reality, 4820 is the maximum downside level where support might hold. There’s a chance that premarket will dip to 5000, and we could see a reversal from there.

2. If the market bounces, key resistance levels to watch are:

   • 5170

   • 5290

   • 5500

3. If the market continues down, watch these support zones:

   • 5000

   • 4820

   • Below that… we’re in trouble — the bear trend will likely accelerate.