Sentiment: Bearish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

Well, it’s another week where I successfully forecasted the key areas and market behavior, showing that I’ve developed some solid chart analysis skills.

But once again, I failed to trade according to my own analysis and what the market was clearly showing during the RTH session on the 5-minute chart.

I also traded crypto, but struggled to manage solid entries and exits. The core issue: I don’t fully trust myself — either my stops are too tight, or I can’t hold a position until the momentum actually fades. What a problem it is!!!

Monthly Chart:

Now, two weeks have passed in April, and the monthly chart looks completely different compared to last week—thanks to a strong bull bar this week. Of course, it's still uncertain where the monthly candle will close, but if it ends up closing near its low, the odds of the market being in serious trouble will be high.

For reference, here's an updated recap of recent major pullbacks:

• 2020: Sharp retracement of about 1,200 points (~31%) from the ATH

• 2023: Pullback of around 1,300 points (~25%) from the ATH

• 2025 (current): So far, a drop of about 1,150 points (~22.8%)

Let’s see how the rest of April plays out. For now, it’s still not a good time to buy—unless we see either a clear reversal or a prolonged sideways range that holds. This week counts as the first for a possible sideways phase.

Daily Chart:

The range of the chart expanded significantly over the past two weeks due to market sentiment shifts, especially around tariff news. From a technical analysis point of view:

• On Monday, the price held around 3xMM and 1xMM (check the chart for reference), signaling a higher probability for a sideways week.

• The unexpected move happened on Wednesday, after Trump postponed the tariff implementation by an extra 90 days, which led the market to break above the key 5290–5300 resistance zone and rally straight to 5500.

Even without that news catalyst, the technical setup already suggested that the probability of further downside was less than 50%, especially when you noticed a higher low major reversal trend (HL MRT) forming on the 15-minute chart.

Loo Key Resistance Level

• The 5550 level now stands out as a strong resistance:

  • It previously marked a double bottom breakout point, which was also around the 50% pullback for the broader bearish trend.

  • With this context, it's likely that this area flips from support to resistance

15 Mins Chart:

The yellow gap is expected to close easily, possibly even before the Monday RTH open, given the strong sentiment from last week's pullback. The momentum into the weekend suggests buyers are still active.

In contrast, the purple gap zone (approx. 5550–5700) will be much harder to breach. This zone aligns with the daily resistance and has already acted as a major inflection area in the past.

Current Structure

• The market remains in a strong bear trend but is now moving inside a bull channel on the 15-min chart.

• It's still unclear whether this is a bear flag (just a pause before another leg down) or the early phase of a reversal.

• The purple gap zone will act as a critical area that could help determine the broader market direction going forward.

Key Levels to Watch

Upside:

• 5550 – Strong resistance (former double bottom neckline and 50% PB zone).

• 5700 – Upper range of the purple gap and structural resistance.

Downside:

• 5250 – Lower boundary of the bull channel (not strong).

• 5130 – The start of the recent rally (also not strong alone).

• 5000–5100 – Major support zone. If this breaks cleanly, the market could be in serious trouble.