ES Weekly Outlook – 2025 Week 44
Date Range: 20th, October 2025 to 24th, October 2025
Weekly Executive Strip
Bias:
Neutral with a mild bullish tilt
Range Focus:
6688–6900
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6900 which is the psychological round number
Soft Support: Friday’s open near 6788
Hard Support: 6688 if bulls remain in control
Macro Events:
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Non-Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday
Monday Action Plan:
Gap Up: Enter long and monitor reaction at the all-time high which is about 6841.75; trail stops only. Upside probability is elevated, with 6900 as a potential target if momentum sustains. Note keeping long positions open since it might take days to reach 6900 if markets goes this direction.
Gap Down: Enter short and monitor reaction near 6800. This level should act as temporary support and trigger a bullish reversal if momentum holds. If it fails, target Friday’s low which is about 6777. Downside risk is limited, but the broader wedge structure on daily chart and potential double top before possible crash remains unresolved; the recent breakout on last Friday lacks clear confirmation, especially after the large bear bar earlier days ago. But again, all the printed structure indicates strong bullish momentum.
Monthly Outlook
Trend: Undeniably bullish
Patterns:
Parabolic climax
Broke above the upper trendline with two consecutive bullish bars
Six straight bull bars with negligible pullbacks—last seen from February to August 2021
Key Observations:
Monthly chart: Relentless bullish momentum since May—no bear bars, pullbacks negligible. This strength persists despite minimal Fed rate relief. Both technicals and fundamentals point to continued upside potential.
Parabolic climax scenario: Even if a sharp correction follows, odds of consolidating into a year-end trading range are 70–80%. Avoid aggressive shorting on intraday moves; favor buying dips for multi-day swing trades.
Worst-case outlook: Reversal in coming weeks could test the 6422–6542 zone.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
6900: which is the psychological round number
Support:
6724: Critical for this month’s close, this is a level to determine which bar type it will print. Bull bar vs. bear bar will set the tone for the coming months to the end of this year.
6688: If a bear bar forms, watch whether price closes below the monthly bar’s midpoint.
Weekly Outlook
Trend: Bullish
Patterns:
Broke and closed above the prior all-time high
Large bull bar closing at its high
At the top of a tight micro bull channel still with some room to run higher
Mild breakout above the larger trading range
Key Observations:
As noted previously, post the large bear bar, price formed an expanding triangle. The upside resolution on Friday confirms robust bullish momentum. Full context on the hesitation, which lasted four days from Monday to Thursday, will be covered in the daily outlook.
Weekly bar closed at its absolute high, above the former ATH, reinforcing strength. Sustainability remains in question: the move stemmed from a single premarket bull bar; regular-hours action formed a range and closed near its low. During regular trading hours, the structure turned into a trading range, and it closed near the bottom of that range. We will cover all the details in the daily outlook section and the five-minute review of last Friday.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
The all-time high at 6841.75. If it breaks that with only a trivial pullback, then 6900 becomes the next target.
Support:
The high of last week at 6766.75. This lines up almost exactly with a key level we will analyze in the next section of the daily outlook
Daily Outlook
Trend: Bullish
Patterns:
Possible three pushes up inside a tight micro bull channel.
Two consecutive bull bars on Thursday both closed at their highs, which shows strong bullish momentum.
Key Observations:
The market still favors bulls. Even after a strong bear bar with no follow-through, price made a new all-time high. I have no doubt about this momentum, yet I remain cautious about climax behavior. The odds of moving higher are above fifty percent, though this could be the final push before a deep pullback from higher time frame's perspective.
Last Friday’s bull bar matters a lot because it confirms the uptrend remains intact. Wednesday’s pullback stayed above the daily EMA 20. Looking at the chart, no daily bar has closed below the daily EMA 20. The worst case in the coming days may be a retest of that EMA 20 line first.
Next Monday will be key to see if the bullish trend holds, especially since regular trading hours of last Friday formed a range rather than a clear bull trend. We may see a pullback on Monday to retest Friday’s open at 6778. We will watch closely to see if buyers step in below that level.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
The all-time high at 6841.75. If price breaks it with only a small pullback, the next target becomes 6900.
Support:
6778, which is the open of the last breakout and also last Friday’s open.
6727, the open of this month; it will decide if the month closes as a bull bar or bear bar.
6688, a fifty percent pullback of the current monthly bar; it will serve as a strong signal for the direction of November and December.
5min Reviews for Last Monday
Good Entries:
Market opened last Monday with a gap up. As noted in the previous post, go long if price gaps up above the bear flag. You would have locked in strong profits by using a trailing stop. The low of bar 14 would serve as your final trailing stop. Your one-times money management target would hit at bar 43. If you entered long on the very first bar, your daily profit and loss would come in around forty points.
5min Reviews for Last Tuesday
Good Entries:
It was a choppy, bounded trading day and far from easy to navigate. The market opened with a negligible gap down, then formed a tight bear trend through the first eight bars before reversing sharply. Another large bear bar appeared at bar eleven but saw no follow-through. The strongest entry came above bar thirteen—a higher low that closed at its high and formed at the session bottom. Using two times real risk, the target hit at bar forty for roughly nineteen points. Trailing stops remained valid only with realistic targets; otherwise, even if not stopped out, most profits would evaporate.
5min Reviews for Last Wednesday
Good Entries:
The market opened with a gap up but printed a large bear bar within the first five minutes. In the context of Monday and Tuesday, shorting became a viable play as bullish momentum cooled and the broader structure remained an expanding triangle. Trailing stops made it straightforward to capture the target—whether one-time or two-times measured move based on the trading range size. Notably, Monday’s gap was fully closed after strong selling around bar thirty-seven.
For scalpers, a solid long entry emerged after two distinct bull bars at fifty-two and fifty-four, with both one-time and two-times measured moves materializing cleanly in the late session.
5min Reviews for Last Thursday
Good Entries:
The market opened flat with no gap, and the weekly context clearly favors bulls a little. The worst case could be a training range and the current price on Thursday was at the bottom of it. The key question is how far the upside will run. If you enter long after two consecutive bull bars, maintain a bullish bias, and use trailing stops with a target at the weekly high, your profit will materialize at bar 58.
5min Reviews for Last Friday
Good Entries:
Friday turned into an unexpected session. The market gapped up more than forty-five points on news, yet failed to produce any trend continuation. Swing traders struggled to stay profitable with stop orders. Although the day left a series of higher lows, bullish momentum remained weak. We cannot predict Monday’s exact behavior, but caution is warranted for a potential pullback to test key support levels: 6812.5 (Friday’s low, likely weak), 6800 (the round number, also weak), and 6778 (the open of the last breakout and last Friday’s open).
