ES Weekly Outlook – 2025 Week 43
Date Range: 20251020 – 20251024
Weekly Executive Strip
Bias: Moderately bullish, as there was no follow-through bearish bar after the significant bearish bar on October 10th. The market is currently in an expanding triangle, signaling indecision about the next direction.
Range Focus: 6420–6800
Key Levels:
Resistance: The 6800 level, as noted in prior posts, remains a robust resistance zone. After a sharp decline without sustained bearish momentum, the market has formed an expanding triangle, reflecting uncertainty among bulls and bears. However, if the market does not see a second strong bearish leg touching the important zone(It's a combination of a slightly flatten trend line and a zone of shifting trading ranges) next week, there’s a slightly higher chance of an upward break to retest 6800.
Soft Support: The low of the large bearish bar, around 6540.
Hard Support: The critical zone between 6400–6420. If this level fails to hold in the coming weeks, the bullish trend could break, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward 5000 (though unlikely this year).
Macro Events:
GDP release on Thursday.
Actions for Monday:
Trade as a range-bound market with a slightly bullish tilt. Expect potential gap-ups or gap-downs next week, but initial movements may not exhibit strong trend behavior, especially after last week’s converging triangle formation.
Gap-up: long after the gap-up above 6700 with two consecutive bull bars, better retest the trend line and use the second entry as the entry point for long. For more details, please refer the the last section about last Friday's 5 mins chart analysis.
Gap-down: Short below the bear bar if the first one is bear bar closed at its low, using trailing stops
Monthly Outlook
Trend: Neutral
Patterns:
Parabolic Climax
Top of the bullish channel
50% Pullback
Higher high and lower low
Key Observations:
The monthly chart remains relatively clean and is still far from its 20-day EMA. A 50% pullback, based on the September monthly bar, occurred around the 6566 level, marked by a blue line, on October 10th. There has been no bearish follow-through, and buyers are attempting to enter long positions at this level.
With two weeks left in the month, if bears cannot close the monthly chart below the 6566 level, the market is more likely to resume a bullish trend. Moreover, a drop to the range between 6400 and 6540 would be a stronger signal that bearish momentum is returning.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
The 6800 level remains a key resistance. Without significantly bullish news, the momentum is unlikely to be strong enough to break out above 6800 successfully.
Support:
The 50% pullback level at approximately 6566.
Weekly Outlook
Trend: Neutral to slightly bullis
Patterns:
Converging Triangle
Weekly bar closed above the 50% level as a bull bar, finishing in its upper third.
Market closed above the low of week 40, closing the potential bearish gap.
Key Observations:
The weekly bar closed as a bull bar following a strong bearish bar in week 41, suggesting a lack of bearish follow-through and signaling a potential weekly reversal attempt. Bears need more momentum to demonstrate significant control in the current market.
The market closed above the low of week 40, showing sustained bullish momentum. With the chart forming a converging triangle and no strong second leg down toward the 20 EMA, which aligns with the bottom of the key zone marked as a red box, there is no clear evidence of an emerging bear market in the coming weeks. Long positions remain favored when trading based on monthly, weekly, or daily charts.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
Range from last week’s high of 6766.75 to the all-time high of 6812.25.
Support:
Range from last week’s low of 6571.25 to the low of the large bearish bar in week 41 at 6540.25.
Daily Outlook
Trend: Neutral
Patterns:
Volatility with a sideways pattern
Early signs of a bearish reversal, but lacking momentum. More bars are needed to confirm the next significant move.
Key Observations:
The long bottom tail on last Friday’s bar formed in premarket with relatively low volume. A 5-minute chart analysis will be provided in the next section to illustrate this. The key point is that bulls remain resilient, preventing the trend from breaking down. The significant bearish bar at 6540, which has not been retested and lacked follow-through, suggests the bullish trend may continue.
However, the extent of the upward move remains uncertain, particularly since 6800 has proven to be a strong resistance, marked by a robust bearish bar at the top of the monthly trend line. Expect range-bound trading to persist for one to two weeks. The market’s up-and-down movements should align with the levels outlined in the monthly analysis. Decisions should be made quickly, favoring a buy-low, sell-high scalping strategy on the daily chart. Please not that the 5-minute intraday chart still can offer solid swing trading opportunities.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
Range from last week’s high of 6766.75 to the all-time high of 6812.25.
Support:
Range from last week’s low of 6571.25 to the low of the large bearish bar in week 41 at 6540.25.
5min Reviews for Last Monday
Good Entries:
Trading on Monday is challenging, with few profitable entry opportunities. However, disciplined traders should be able to limit losses effectively.
Bar 21 presents a good entry point after a double bottom pattern and two consecutive bull bars. However, the 50% resistance level from last Friday proved difficult to break, which was only evident after the session. Using a trailing stop after entering a long position above bar 21, you would likely be stopped out around bar 65, securing a modest profit of 5 to 6 points.
No other clear entry opportunities emerged. Shorting below bar 66 was viable but occurred late in the session. Holding overnight could yield significant profits, but for intraday traders, positions typically need to be closed before the session ends.
5min Reviews for Last Tuesday
Good Entries:
if holding overnight mentioned before, basically you can exit after seeing bar 5 with two strong bull bars and at bottom of the last Friday's low.
Entering a long position above bar 5 is viable, with both one-time and two-time measured moves achieved within the session. Initially, trading this trend was challenging due to a bearish bias if you have, but staying disciplined and capitalizing on market opportunities is critical for intraday traders. If you miss the entry at bar 5, long entries above bars 27 or 34 are also solid options.
For short positions, entering below bar 62 with an expectation of the market retracing to a one-time measured move is reasonable. However, as this occurs later in the session, ensure quick profit-taking or stop-loss execution.
5min Reviews for Last Wednesday
Good Entries:
Following a gap up and a double bottom formation at a higher level, entering a long position above bar 5 was a reasonable choice. However, the high-level resistance around 6760, previously a breakout point from a bull trend, was critical. You could either take profits at bar 8 with a limit order or risk being stopped out, potentially with a loss, if holding the position.
If you held a bearish bias, taking profits at bar 8 on a long position or directly shorting below bar 12 were strong choices. The target could be the gap closure or the weekly 50% pullback level. Using a trailing stop was highly effective in this scenario.
5min Reviews for Last Thursday
Good Entries:
The bearish trend became evident only after bar 23. The day opened with a gap up, followed by a retest of the gap. Bulls attempted to sustain the bullish trend but failed at bar 15 and again at bar 23, which closed at its low, signaling potential bearish momentum. Until that point, the market’s direction remained uncertain. Bars 23 and 25 provided strong entry points for short positions, with a profit-taking target near the bottom of bar 40, which aligned with the weekly 50% pullback support level.
For intraday trading, bar 46 reached the 50% bull pullback but failed to break through twice. Shorting below bar 49 was another solid entry, with the target again set at the 50% pullback level.
5min Reviews for Last Friday
Good Entries:
Friday’s session lacked a clear swing trade setup, despite closing at its high. However, the likelihood of breaking below the 50% weekly pullback level remains elevated for the following week. For intraday trading, if you held a bias toward strong support at the 50% weekly pullback, long entries above bars 4 and 26 were favorable. Note that the low of bar 26 was one point lower than bar 4, so a tight stop-loss below bar 4 would likely have resulted in the first position being stopped out.
The absence of a strong bullish trend was likely due to the influence of a bearish trend line. There were no definitive signals indicating a reversal to a bullish trend, nor did the bearish trend clearly dominate. Consequently, Monday’s market opening will be crucial in assessing the trading bias based on its initial behavior.
