Pre-market

CL

Crude oil has been in a bearish trend for almost a month, forming a bear wedge pattern with three legs. If the upper trend line breaks out, there is a high probability that it will retest the resistance level at $80.11.

Post-market

ES

The market opened high with a gap, aligning with my previous analysis from the day before that suggested a likely double top on a higher time frame. Upon seeing three bearish bars, it was a good opportunity to short and anticipate a measured move down, with a position closure around bar 7. Typically, a strong bear trend would have a second leg down, but instead, the market formed a wedge bull flag, slowing the decline.

I scaled down, expecting a second leg down during the session. However, upon reviewing the market after it closed, the risk was too high. I should have waited for a clearer signal bar, such as bar 42 (a double micro top/lower high with a strong bearish bar), to short. After bar 42, the market indicated an "Always In Short" condition, and I should have sold at each pullback, such as at bars 51 and 57 (L1). Bar 61 should have been the target to take profit, but I exited early, which was not ideal.

Bars 66 and 71 provided good buy signals, indicating the market might turn back to "Always In Long." Despite this, the bullish strength prevented the bears from closing the gap between 5287-5295.

GC

Gold opened with a strong bullish gap but then started to drop and test the previous high. Recently, trading gold has been challenging due to its strong correlation with the DXY. Despite this, from a price action perspective, after testing the previous close and forming a double micro bottom, there was a good buy signal at bar 10 (H2 buy setup). The exit could have been at bar 34, with bar 47 being another buy setup (a three-push-down wedge with an H1 buy setup).

However, the bullish momentum was not strong enough to make a higher high (HH). Instead, at bar 62, it made a lower low (LL). In summary, today, gold experienced a trading range (TR), making it difficult to trade effectively.

CL

Crude oil opened at a high with a significant gap, attempting to retest the higher time frame upper channel line. After a reversal, good entry bars were at 11, 15, and the consecutive bars from 20 to 48, forming a bull wedge with three pushes up. Entries could be sold at bars 41/42.

Notice the bear trap at bar 51, as the bull wedge broke out. There is a high probability it would test the wedge's starting point at bar 20, but it failed. Considering bar 59 as a bullish signal, if you have a short position there, you should regard the market as still "Always In Long." From a higher time frame perspective, the hourly/daily target is 80.11, which it eventually reached at 65 and retested at 68.