Pre-Market

DYX

From the daily or even weekly chart, it is evident that the DXY is in a trading range. Recently, the DXY has formed a bull wedge with a second leg bottom while also forming a bear wedge with a third leg up. It is possible that the higher time frame will dominate the trend. This suggests that instead of continuing downward to follow the bear wedge pattern, there is a high probability that the DXY will reverse and attempt to reach the top of the trading range, as indicated by the daily or weekly chart.

This scenario would likely have a negative impact on gold and stocks.

ES

The upper gap was filled last week, and the bulls attempted to push the price higher. However, the bulls failed to drive the price to the all-time high yesterday. Instead, the market dropped close to the gap again. In the final few bars during regular trading hours, it bounced back to the daily high.

The issue is that during the extended trading hours before today's opening, the premarket dropped significantly, even falling below yesterday's low to the upper boundary of the gap.

I think the market will likely reach the bottom of the gap, and then there are two possibilities:

• go up and try to touch ATH again(49% probability)

• go down directly and target is the other gap at about 5176(51% probability)

GC

Given that the DXY has a higher probability of experiencing a bull trend and considering that GC is in a bear trend with a bull flag, the odds are that the price will drop. The target for this drop is the gap around 2285.

CL

The setup for crude oil on the daily chart can be categorized as a triangle, making it difficult to forecast the direction. However, the odds lean towards a bullish outcome since the price broke out of the upper channel line of a bearish wedge. The price might either return to form a trading range between 76 and 80 or continue higher, with targets at 83.36 or even 86.6.

Post-Market

DXY

As anticipated, the price broke above the upper trend channel line in the small time frame. Consequently, the likelihood of forming a trading range is somewhat greater than the price continuing to rise immediately. This suggests a strong possibility that the price will retest the lower channel line in the higher time frame.

ES

The price declined after multiple attempts to push higher during the Regular Trading Hours (RTH). Although my forecast was correct, the bulls were strong enough to form four pushes up before the market crashed. I traded poorly by ignoring the opening trend and shorting based on my bias. Throughout the entire RTH, I continuously shorted and added more positions as the price rose. This strategy has a significant flaw: if the bulls had been even slightly stronger, I would have been wiped out.

A trading strategy should not rely solely on higher-level analysis and bias, even if the analysis is accurate. Since I trade using a 5-minute chart, I should adhere to the 30-5-1 rule rather than focusing exclusively on the overall market picture. This means that, based on the daily bias, I should take long positions during a bullish trend but with scalp trades, and short positions at appropriate times to reduce risk and enhance probability.

After forming 43, it became clearer that a trading range (TR) was developing. Given my bearish bias, I should have only taken short positions after 42. Before reaching that point, scalping would have been a better trading approach.

GC

Prices was adjusted last day and I don't know why?? I will update it once I figured that out.

CL

For CL, I mistakenly attempted to trade the countertrend, which was unwise, and I have made this mistake many times. It didn't break out of the gap and formed an "always in short" pattern. I expected to find the 'bottom' and took a long position, but ended up trapped as there was no bottom. I need to remember to always trade with the trend, and if I do trade countertrend, it should only be for scalping!