zSentiment: A little bit Bearish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

Another week where I got the market direction right—props to myself for that! This week, I also started using IBKR for trading futures. While it's a solid platform overall, the desktop version isn’t very friendly for intraday trading. It lacks convenient setups for basic things like OCO orders, and it doesn’t include round-trip calculations by default when exporting trade history. I’m still getting used to the platform, but hopefully I’ll feel confident enough soon to start trading futures with my live account.

Weekly Chart(Monthly Analysis):

There are still 8 trading days left until the end of the month (EoM). Currently, the 50% monthly support level sits around 5293.5, and the market is slightly above that following last week's strong rally. It remains uncertain where the market will settle by EoM, and this may heavily depend on any announcements or developments related to Trump’s tariff policies. That said, bears will likely attempt to drive the price below this key level before month-end to shift market sentiment toward a more bearish outlook for the upcoming month.

From my perspective, I expect the market to attempt another rally early next week—particularly during the first three or four days. If it pushes toward 5500 again and fails to break through, I believe the odds of a downward move will rise to above 50%.

Key Area:

• Resistance: 5500

• Support: 5293.5

Daily Chart:

From a daily chart perspective, the market is clearly in a trading range. Last week’s strong rally occurred within a very tight bear channel that had persisted for several weeks. However, that rally alone isn’t enough to directly reverse the overall bearish sentiment. Notably, there has been no meaningful follow-through after any of the bull bars since the rally—indicating that bulls lack the conviction to push prices higher in the current environment.

As mentioned earlier, bulls are likely targeting another test of the 5500 resistance level next week, while bears will undoubtedly defend that area. Whichever side wins this battle will likely dictate market sentiment heading into the final trading days of the month.

Even if bears take the upper hand, bulls are expected to defend the prior breakout zone around 5090–5130, where the recent rally originated. A deeper bearish case won’t be convincing unless the market revisits that support area and the bulls fail to hold it.

In my view, the market may stay in a sideways range over the remaining 8 trading days, potentially leading to a monthly close above the 50% level of the monthly bar—around 5130. However, this outcome hinges entirely on the market maintaining that sideways structure. At this point, the probability of a broader recovery remains below 50%. The only realistic path toward that recovery scenario is if the market drifts sideways through to the end of the month without a significant bearish breakdown.

Key Area:

• Resistance: 5500

• Support: 5090 - 5130

15 mins Chart:

Currently, the market is in a bull channel. While it's not yet confirmed as a bear flag, the likelihood is above 50%. The key observation is that bull momentum is weakening, especially as the market fails to revisit the recent rally high of 5500(Tried once already). This suggests that bulls may be scalping, and while bears likely had a bit of a squeeze during the rally, the squeezed bears are likely to gradually return to the market, though there has been no clear shift in momentum yet.

There’s also a bearish gap left from last Thursday. We'll need to observe the pre-market on Monday to see if the gap is filled. The best-case scenario for bulls is a converging triangle formation, which could break higher and test 5500 again. However, if this doesn’t materialize within the next 4 trading days, the chance of the market moving down to test 5090–5130 will exceed 80%.

Trading Suggestion:

• Expecting TR behavior between 5130 - 5500, like Two legs up and down

• Focus on gap fills before the RTH (Regular Trading Hours) and scalp both bulls and bears, as sideways movement seems to have a higher-than-50% chance.

• Once a clear trend forms, especially if a bear trend resumes, follow the flow and short the market.