Sentiment: At least Bullish for the beginning of the week

Previous Weekly Analysis:

Monthly Chart:

The April monthly candle closed at its high, above the 20-month EMA, indicating continued bullish sentiment. This strength may be supported by the monthly EMA50 and a wedge bottom formation (from Oct 2022, Oct 2023, and April 2025). Overall, the US stock market remains in a bullish trend.

While a retracement is uncertain in the coming weeks, it would be reasonable to expect a pullback after such strong bullish momentum—likely to retest one of the three key horizontal support levels shown in the chart.

Additionally, the yellow gap area will likely contain significant selling pressure, so it's crucial to take profit using a stop-loss order if you're in a position.

Resistance Zone:

• 5776 to 5900 (Gap area)

Support Zone:

• 5538 to 5581 (From Monthly EMA20 to 50% pullback of all-time high)

• If price breaks below 5538, the likelihood of a deeper pullback increases.

Weekly Chart:

The weekly chart also reflects strong bullish sentiment. However, resistance is expected at the weekly EMA20/50 near 5740.

• If the market opens with a gap up, resistance will align with the monthly outlook (5776–5900).

• If the market gaps down, it may still test the 5740 level to confirm whether buyers remain active.
  Only after this test will the market decide whether to move downward toward the 5500–5538 support range. If that support fails, the next levels to watch are 5306 and 5129.

Upside Scenarios:

1. Gap up: 5776 to 5900 (gap area), as high as possible

2. Gap down:

   • Retest 5740

     • If it holds → 5776 to 5900

     • If it breaks → 5500–5538

       • If this also fails → deeper retracement toward 5306 and 5129

Daily Chart:

The daily chart has shown strong bullish momentum since April 23rd. Given this strength, a mere touch of the daily EMA20 or EMA50 is unlikely to cause a reversal. Therefore, weekly resistance near 5776 is likely the real start of resistance, not the 5750–5776 range.

Still, note that resistance zones in all timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) cluster around 5750–5776, making this area critically important.

Upside Scenarios:

1. Gap up:

   • 5740 to 5776

   • If momentum continues → 5776 to 5900

2. Gap down:

   • Retest 5740–5776

     • If it holds → continue toward 5900

     • If it breaks → drop to 5500–5538

       • If that support also breaks → next targets are 5306 and 5129

5mins Chart:

Nothing special to say, still not good at entry and exit,

1. Probably I need to recognize bigger trend first.

2. Then based on the market gap to see which direction is higher than 50% chance.

3. then based on the higher probability setup to entry, instead of trading too frequently

But It is still hard.....