Sentiment: Bearish

Previous Weekly Analysis:

Monthly Chart:

There are no significant changes on the monthly chart compared to last week, so last week's analysis remains largely applicable.

1. The market remains in a bullish trend on the monthly timeframe.

2. The upper wick has extended further compared to last week, reflecting a failed bullish breakout attempt (details in the daily chart analysis).

3. A pullback (PB) is still anticipated, potentially to one of the following key levels:

   • 5540: 50% pullback from the all-time high — high probability support.

   • 5300: 50% pullback from last month's range — uncertain, and likely to break if tested.

   • 5130: 50% pullback of the "three pushes up" pattern on the monthly — possibly the last line of defense for maintaining the bullish trend.

4. Market sentiment is gradually improving, especially around tariffs, which increases the likelihood that the pullback may halt at 5540, allowing the bullish trend to resume.

Weekly Chart:

Last week’s analysis accurately predicted market behavior. The only deviation was that after the gap down, the market didn’t immediately attempt to be bull to retest 5740 — a point discussed further in the daily chart analysis. This hesitation suggests that, despite the monthly bullish trend, the market may be experiencing a pullback within a broader bearish context, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

Looking ahead, the likelihood of testing 5540 next week is very high. Without a strong breakout above 5740, the gap between 5776–5900 is unlikely to be filled(or Failed BO). A bearish move is expected early in the week, and we’ll watch closely to see if 5540 can hold as support.

Daily Chart:

The daily chart reveals several key insights that help interpret recent market behavior:

1. Monday opened with a gap down, followed by two consecutive bearish candles — a clear sign that bullish momentum is weakening.

2. There’s a strong indication that the three-push-up bull channel (outlined by the black zip lines) has ended. Thursday’s high likely marks the third and final push.

3. As the market is still in a bear trend(monthly bull but weekly bear still), a test of support is expected. Key levels to watch:

   • 5600: A minor trading range — unlikely to hold.

   • 5540–5560: Represents the 50% pullback from the all-time high — roughly a 50/50 chance of holding.

   • 5300–5380: Higher probability (around 70%) of holding. If this zone fails, it would signal a return to a bearish trend, making long-term positions less meaningful — though short-term scalping may still be viable.

4. Note on the blue arrow: While trendlines are generally weaker than horizontal S/R levels, context matters. The market holding at the trendline on April 30th suggests that in a strong trend environment, pullbacks might not go deep. Even trendlines can act as valid support/resistance compared to horizontal levels in such cases.

5mins Chart:

Over the past two weeks, there have been no new gaps on the 5-minute chart — all previous gaps have been filled. The key range to monitor is 5370–5770, which sits between two yellow-marked gaps on the chart. This range is likely to define the market’s behavior in the short term.

Scenarios for Monday:

1. Gap Down: Short aggressively with a minimum intraday target of 5538.

2. Gap Up: Consider a quick long for a scalp, but position for a swing short.