Date Range: 20250908 – 20250912

🔎 Sentiment Summary

  • Bias: Still Conservative Bullish, chance of going up to reach to 6700 from 6488(week 37) is STILL higher than going back to test 6240.

  • Rationale: Anticipated Rate Cutting in Sep; Broader Bull channel from weekly and daily perspective; Weekly and daily EMA Rainbow is pretty healthy; No potential Parabolic Climax and with relatively mild PB

🗓 Monthly View

  • Trend: Bullish

  • Key Observations:

    • Following the close of the first week in September, the monthly chart formed a bull bar, which aligns with the weekly chart also showing a bull bar, as this was the first week of the month. With three weeks remaining in September, the likelihood of the monthly chart closing as a bull bar is higher than it forming a bear bar.

    • However, analyzing the weekly and daily charts(BELOW) reveals that the market is within a broader bullish channel across these timeframes, suggesting the possibility of a minor pullback (PB) occurring.

    • The 6370 level was tested in the first week of September. Bulls will aim to prevent the market from retesting this level. If the bulls maintain control, the monthly low is expected to hold at 6370.

  • Levels to Watch:

    • Upside: 6700-6720

    • Downside:

      • Defense level: 6370

      • Strong Support level 2: 6220-6260

📅 Weekly View

  • Trend: Neutral

  • Patterns: Broader Bull Channel, Forming HH and HL, Expanding Triangle

  • Key Observations:

    • This week closed with a bull bar featuring a longer lower tail. As noted in last week's analysis, the key level of 6370 was likely to be tested again due to the market's position within a broader bull channel or trading range. And it was indeed tested.

    • An ATH was achieved, signaling that bulls are pushing for higher prices. However, the week's close was below the previous week's high, indicating a failed breakout (further details in the daily chart analysis).

    • The formation of an Expanding Triangle(from only past two weeks' perspective, it is better to not call it as a expanding triangle though) suggests potentially weakening bull momentum, though it does not imply bearish control. Looking at the past four weeks following the significant bull bar, the market has not formed TR but instead continues to exhibit a broader bull channel, consistently forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), which indicates the market bias is still bullish.

    • The 6370 level was retested this week, establishing a higher low (HL) comparing to week 34. Ideally, bulls would prefer to avoid another test of this level. If 6370 is tested again and fails to hold(high probability if test again), the broader bull channel could break, potentially leading to the formation of a trading range between 6240 and 6540.

    • For bulls to sustain a healthy continuation of the bullish trend, the weekly chart need a clear break out above the trend line(i.e. consecutive bull bars in daily chart).

    • Conversely, for bears to shift the market dynamics, they must successfully break below the 6370 level, transforming the broader bull channel into a trading range (TR).

  • Levels to Watch:

    • Resistance: Not really the target could be any below 6700

    • Support:

      • Defense level: 6371.5

      • Strong Support level 2: 6220-6260

📆 Daily View

  • Trend: Neutral, or PB with Bull trend.

  • Patterns: Broader Bull Channel, 20 EMA support, HH and HL, BUT HH is always rejected(Stair Pattern), Potential DT

  • Key Observations:

    • Despite the market reaching new ATHs multiple times since August, these highs have consistently been rejected, resulting in a stair pattern with mild PBs. The increasingly rapid rejections suggest that more short-term traders are opting to take profits at HH rather than holding for a prolonged bullish continuation, likely to mitigate risk.

    • However, the presence of a bull channel does not necessarily indicate a weakening trend. Unless bears can take control and convert the market into a TR with a subsequent breakout below the TR's low(could be 6370 or 6220-6260), longing remains the optimal strategy in the current market.

    • Depending on the trader's timeframe, the primary approach should involve seeking opportunities to go long for swing trades while using short trades for scalping.

  • Scenario on Monday's opening

    • Gap-up:

      • Enter a long position without hesitation, placing a stop-loss (SL) below the bottom of the gap (Friday’s close at 6488).

    • Gap-down:

      • Consider a scalp short with a target around 6452 (Daily EMA20, Friday’s low).

      • For a long position, wait for any level above 6370, but ensure promise confirmation with a second entry signal.

⚠️ Key Risks / Watch Zones for Next Week

  • Macro events (CPI on Thursday).

📌 Summary / Action Points

  • Gap-up Mon: Take the long immediately; initial stop just below the gap (Fri close ≈ 6,488). Trail beneath prior 15–30m swing lows; scale into strength toward 6,700–6,720.

  • Gap-down Mon: Allow a scalp short into ~6,452; flip bias to second-entry long only after strength reclaims above the prior swing with 6,370 protected.

  • Continuation tells for bulls: Consecutive daily bull bars or a clean break/close above the short-term trendline toward 6,700.

  • Risk management: If price trades below 6,370 intraday, reduce long exposure; if daily close < 6,370, de-risk more aggressively and wait for TR resolution.