ES Weekly Outlook – 2025 Week 39
Date Range: 20250922 – 20250926
Weekly Executive Strip
Bias: Neutral with slightly bullish
Range Focus: 6525-6770
Key Levels:
Potential Resistance based on measure move, take profit should happen in zone 6700-6750
Hard Support after breaking out the trading range(pink block): 6430-6500
Macro Events: Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployed Rate on Friday
Actions on Next Monday
Gap-Up: Long for scalp, target is 6750. Avoid potential climax.
Gap-Down: Wait to see the market reaction of touching 6700-6710 zone. If no buying power, short and trailing stop.
Monthly Outlook
Trend: Bullish, however, risk is also high,
Patterns: Consecutive bull bars for 5 months, far away from EMA20, closed at high and potential climax with deep pullback
Key Observations:
Personally I assume the all time high of this year will come out within 2 to 3 weeks, before the mid of October.
From technical perspective, there is no sign for the market to sharply change to be bearish. But the market will be extremely risky without a period of consolidation for the current bullish trend to continue.
I expect a monthly all-time-high could be already printed(6731.5), and the yearly all-time-high could be about 6770.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: There is no resistance due to the bull trend and all-time-high refreshening. Multiple technical indicators suggests the potential pull back.
Support: 6430(black zone), which is the bottom of current monthly bar(less than 1% probability to close below this since only one week left)
Weekly Outlook
Trend: Neutral to Bearish, considering the potential climax
Patterns: Break out follow through from a trading range(black box)
Key Observations:
Closed at its high, far away from the trading range, more than 50% chance to have a pull back to retest the high of the trading range(6550), due to monthly measure move for bull to take profit and potential bear to test the support.
If looking back to the big reversal starting from 21st of April, the bars printed so far form a four-section space and currently it is also a level to take profit for bulls. Multiple technical setups overlapping on this level makes me think the deep pull back or at least consolidation is around the corner.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: There is no resistance due to the bull trend and all-time-high refreshening. Multiple technical indicators suggests the potential pull back.
Support: 6550, the top of the trading range(black box)
Daily Outlook
Trend: Neutral to bearish
Patterns: Bears failed to reverse the bull trend in the trading range after three pushes up(red arrow) on 2nd September. And the market became always in long with minor pull back.
Key Observations:
There is no pattern suggesting the upcoming potential pull back actually. From technical perspective, you should always long if you must stay in the market.
The worst case for next week is to have a pull back and retest the low of last week low(6611), and the chance of getting lower to test 6550 is low based on the current market sentiment.
If there will be more than 2 big consecutive bear bars closed at their low on a daily basis, the market will form another consolidation area. Only in this case, the bears could start to sell hardly in next month to lead to a temporary bear trend.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: There is no resistance due to the bull trend and all-time-high refreshening. Multiple technical indicators suggests the potential pull back.
Support: 6610(Yellow Box), the low of the last week
5min Reviews for Last Monday
Good Entries:
Long after Bar 4 using stop order:
because gap up, frame bull trend in higher time
trailing stop out, but can leave earlier due to wedge top and 2 consecutive bear bars at 20 low.
Long after 26 closes using stop order:
because high lower and bull trend
stop out with loss at bar 42
long at bar 49 either using limit order or stop order:
because potential trading range after bull trend last week, double bottom and closed at its high
target should be reached if planning to take profit at the wedge top at bar 54
5min Reviews for Last Tuesday
Good Entries:
conservative short after seeing bar 5
because gap up but with two strong big bear bars, either could be trading range or bear trend. The worse case could be break even if managing size sophisticatedly.
TP is 1 time measure move or the EMA20, after seeing the consolidation phased for consecutive bars after touching EMA 20, leave the market is a better choice(above 28 or 29 could be the technically correct choice, wedge breakout, close at high, EMA 20 consolidation, etc.)
Long after seeing bar 32
because it could be a potential high low major trend reversal, given the big context is a bull trend.
unfortunately, if targeting the open of the day, you will fail; but if you target the 1 time measure move, it reached at bar 65. Note always using trailing stop will help you to eventually reach the target
5min Reviews for Last Wednesday
Good Entries:
Bar 7 is ok to start short
given the context on Tuesday was NOT a bull trend.
The target could be the gap on Monday(6618), but you will be wiped out due to the big price fluctuation of FMOC. The smartest way is to short until your trailing stop is reached(which is actually the high of the bar 37). Or even more aggressively, after seeing bar 43, you should leave if you still have short position due to FOMC and technical setups like wedge bottom, double bottom and strong bullish signal bar.
5min Reviews for Last Thursday
Good Entries:
long above bar 5
given the gap up, strong signal bar closed at its high
I could personally close the position at 6700 considering the potential profit taking zone. However, if using trailing stop, you will be stopped out at bar 29, which is actually lower than 6700. Note it is not possible to take profit below bar 13 to 17 in live since there is no technical setup to support this assumption. Strong bull trend usually follows pull back one, or two, or even three times before trend continuous.
long above bar 33
it is a good entry after seeing two pull backs, 50% pull back, double bottoms, and strong bullish signal bar within a bull trend(sentimentally speaking)
but you will not have any profit if you insist on a bullish trend, either being stop out at bar 76 with loss, or an early exit at bar 69
5min Reviews for Last Friday
Good Entries:
Bar 3 to short and bar 5 to long are both not triggered
short below bar 8 is a good entry
given the trading range or at least a broader bull channel behavior
Target could be the bottom of bar 2, wedge bottom of bar 24. Especially after seeing bar 29, if you are still not close the short, you should do that immediately due to bigger bullish context, consecutive bull bars in 5 minutes bars, wedge break top break out
After close short position, you can long at any bar, say, 29, 30 or even 31
target could be the top of the trading range(daily high), and it was reached at bar 40. However, you can continue to long above the bar 50 due to the weak behavior of bear to push price back to the trading range. The new target can be 1 time measure move which actually was reach as well at bar 72. But this is only a theoretical analysis and usually it is not possible to make this decision.
