ES Weekly Outlook – 2025 Week 40
Date Range: 20250929 – 20251003
Weekly Executive Strip
Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Weekly Range Focus: 6585.25–6756.75
Key Levels:
Soft Resistance: All-time high at 6756.75
Soft Support: Between the 39th weekly bar and monthly 50% pullback, ranging from 6571–6585; possible if bears push hard.
Hard Support: 6470–6480, upper bound of the previous trading range; low probability of reaching this directly.
Macro Events: No major events next week, Chinese National Holiday, no anticipated geopolitical conflicts, reduced uncertainty.
Actions for Monday:
Gap-Up: Above 6700 with a single bar closing high and minimal upper tail, go long targeting 6745–6756.
Gap-Down: Significantly below 6686 with a bar closing low and minimal lower tail, go short targeting 6625–6650.
Note: Without consistent selling pressure, i.e., consecutive bars closing at low, the market leans bullish.
Monthly Outlook
Trend: Neutral to Bullish
Patterns: Channel, Parabolic Climax, Bars Closing at Highs
Key Observations:
Two days remain in the month, making a bearish monthly close nearly impossible. The best bearish outcome or worst for bulls is a close below the 50 percent pullback level at 6571.
The past five months show the strongest momentum in the last five years. The market's reaction to the upcoming interest rate cut cycle and debit balances reaching 1 trillion will be significant.
Pullbacks on weekly or daily timeframes are buying opportunities for higher timeframe traders.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: No firm resistance, as the market keeps hitting all-time highs.
Support: The 50 percent monthly pullback at 6571 is the best-case scenario for bears, given the short time left this month.
Weekly Outlook
Trend: Conservative Bearish, expecting a small pullback
Patterns: Channel Top, Parabolic Climax, Potential Fake Breakout of the larger trading range marked by the black box above
Key Observations:
Last week, profit-taking occurred when the market hit the upper boundary of the monthly channel, resulting in a weekly bearish bar. No clear evidence suggests bears entered the market to short for a swing trade. The small pullback ended on Friday, as will be discussed in the daily outlook. A bearish bar with a long lower tail indicates no significant reversal to a bearish trend.
The pause last week likely stemmed from profit-taking and some aggressive bears scalping. However, given the potential climax pattern, bears may still attempt to reverse the market. The best-case scenario for bears is to close the 40th weekly bar next week below the 50 percent pullback level of 6517.75, with only two days left this month, and possibly test the weekly 20 EMA at around 6330.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: No firm resistance, as the market continues to hit all-time highs. If a new all-time high is reached, it will act as resistance, though the likelihood is below 50 percent due to strong bullish momentum over recent months.
Support: 6446 to 6571 if bears gain control of the market.
Daily Outlook
Trend: Neutral
Patterns: Early Tight Trading Range behavior, still forming higher lows, long bottom tails on bearish bars indicating strong buying pressure.
Key Observations:
The 6700 level is a critical threshold separating a bullish trend from a neutral one. After hitting an all-time high last Monday, the bearish pullback was significant from a daily chart perspective. Although Friday closed as a bullish bar, the late close leaves uncertainty about whether the price can surpass Monday’s low of around 6700.
If Monday’s market, as noted in the weekly strip, lacks strong momentum above 6700, the trend could shift bearish.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 6700 acts as the softest resistance, with the all-time high of 6756 also considered a soft resistance.
Support: The daily 20 EMA and higher low, both above 6630, are key supports. If breached, the next support zone is the range of 6470 to 6520, encompassing trading range support or another trendline support.
5min Reviews for Last Monday
Good Entries:
Last week's executive strip advised monitoring the market's reaction in the 6700-6710 zone on Monday, with the suggestion to short with a trailing stop if no buying power was present. However, while the market opened with a gap down, it lacked selling pressure, leading to an upward move.
Bar 4 Entry: A slightly early entry but attractive due to the bullish market sentiment and a tight stop loss range of 8.5 points, making it a worthwhile trade.
Bar 11 Entry: A more conservative and robust entry, supported by factors like the gap close, absence of selling pressure, and it being a second entry point. The stop loss range is wider, approximately 16 points. Both target could be 6750 or trailing stop which might be triggered at bar 56 if moving the stop loss order below bar 46.
5min Reviews for Last Tuesday
Good Entries:
Trading on Tuesday was challenging due to a strong bearish trend following Monday’s bullish trend. However, by carefully observing the higher timeframe, once the bearish trend was confirmed, the target became clear: the bottom of Monday’s opening.
Below Bar 8 Entry: A good entry point to short, aiming for a one-time measured move, if not targeting the ultimate goal of 6700, which was Monday’s opening level. This target was reached at bar 30, where clear profit-taking actions were evident.
Below Bar 40 Entry: Another strong entry point, supported by a high-two setup in a bearish trend, with the signal bar closing at its low without a tail. Given the bearish momentum and potential rejection of the bullish trend’s continuation, the target was again Monday’s opening level. This materialized at bar 51.
5min Reviews for Last Wednesday
Good Entries:
Wednesday opened with a gap up but was followed by three consecutive bearish bars, closing the gap. Given the potential trading range bottom, a short trade should be treated as a scalp, targeting a one-time measured move. Short Below Bar 3: A good entry for a scalp short, targeting a one-time measured move, which materialized at bar 25. The risk was approximately 12 points.
Short Below Bar 28: After observing the large bearish bar at 28, shorting below it with a target of another one-time measured move was also feasible, materializing at bar 33.
Long Above Bar 43: A good entry for a long position, though it did not ultimately materialize. However, breaking even was possible.
5min Reviews for Last Thursday
Good Entries:
Thursday was challenging to trade. After two days of consecutive bearish trends and a gap down, the market favored bears. However, attempting to trade swings or trends with entries at Bar 3, Bar 19 for shorts, or Bar 25 for longs would likely result in losses if not treating the market as a trading range.
Short Below Bar 49: A viable entry for a short, but by this point, it should have been clear that the intraday market had a high likelihood of being a trading range. Thus, targeting profit at the low of the opening was key.
Long Above Bar 57: After observing two consecutive bullish bars at 57, a long entry was feasible, achieving a one-time measured move. Overall, profitability on this day was difficult to achieve.
5min Reviews for Last Friday
Good Entries:
Friday opened with a gap up and broke the bearish trendline. Given the higher timeframe bullish momentum, buyers were likely eager to enter. For aggressive traders, buying at the open was a good choice, with a risk of about 11.5 points (the gap distance), targeting the last lower high, which was reached at bar 7.
Short Below Bar 6 or 7: Shorting below these bars was reasonable but likely led to losses if expecting the bearish trend to continue after Thursday’s trading range behavior.
Long Above Bar 34: After consolidation from bar 12 to bar 34 and a breakout above the 5-minute bearish trendline, the likelihood of a bullish trend increased slightly. Longing above bar 34, targeting a one-time measured move, allowed for profit-taking at bar 62.
