ES Weekly Outlook – 2025 Week 41
Date Range: 20251006 – 20251010
Weekly Executive Strip
Bias: Neutral (Highly subjective due to conflicting bearish risk concerns and bullish technical signals)
Range Focus: 6542–6800
Key Levels:
Soft Resistance: 6800 – A significant round number, likely difficult to break, with a high probability of retesting.
Soft Support: 6611 – The lower boundary of the current tight bullish channel.
Hard Support: 6542 – Aligned with the 50-day EMA and the prior range low.
Macro Events:
CPI release on Wednesday
PPI release on Thursday
Actions for Monday:
Gap-Up:
If the market shows two or more consecutive bullish bars, it may attempt to retest 6800. Consider longing but take profits before 6800.
Gap-Down:
If the price falls below Friday’s low of 6754, initiate a short position and monitor momentum. Take profits after the second reversal from bearish to bullish, as it could signal a Lower High reversal pattern.
Monthly Outlook
Trend: Expect a potential pause in the bullish trend during October before reaching the target of 7463. (I maintain a bias that the all-time high will likely appear before October 15, 2025.)
Patterns: Parabolic Climax, Top of Channel, Round Number Resistance, among others.
Key Observations:
The market is currently surging, largely driven by AI-related optimism. While there’s little bearish news impacting the tech sector, the current price levels appear overextended for entering long positions from a technical perspective.
With four weeks remaining in October, a retest of the 6160–6230 zone followed by a bounce is plausible, given the ongoing parabolic climax.
Despite the potential for a pullback, the broader bullish trend remains intact, and long positions should take precedence over shorting from a higher timeframe perspective.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 6800, A key round number.
Support: 6371, The low of September’s monthly bar.
Weekly Outlook
Trend: Neutral to Bearish
Patterns: Top of the trading range
Key Observations:
The current chart appears strongly bullish, making a bearish perspective challenging. There are no clear signs of bearish behavior, such as a flattening channel or trading range consolidation. Unlike the significant drawdown in April, which began with a stair-step channel pattern, the market remains in a tight bullish channel.
Buyers dominate below each previous bull bar, overpowering cautious sellers who tend to take profits before reaching these zones as well. The uptrend is resilient, and even if a bearish move occurs, the channel bottom remains a critical support level.
While the higher timeframe shows a strong bullish chart with a tight bull channel, making a bearish view difficult, the 5-minute chart requires a more nuanced approach. Higher timeframe structure provides context but doesn’t directly dictate actions on this shorter timeframe.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 6800, A significant round number.
Support: 6520, The midpoint of the broader trading range and the level of the breakout from a month ago.
Daily Outlook
Trend: Neutral to Bearish
Patterns: At the top of the Bull Channel; latest bar (potential signal bar) closed as a bear bar with a long upper tail.
Key Observations:
Given the prior analysis of a parabolic climax and the current channel behavior on the daily chart, there’s a high likelihood of a price pullback to test the bottom of the channel.
Last Friday’s bar formed a shooting star with a long upper tail and closed bearish, increasing the probability of a gap-down opening next week and further downside movement.
Despite the bearish setup, strong buying pressure persists below each bull bar due to the ongoing bullish momentum. When shorting on the 5-minute chart, take profits quickly if reaching such zone and seeing the second bullish entry signal to secure gains, then reassess for additional shorting opportunities.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 6800 – A key round number, likely to act as a psychological barrier.
Support: 6635 – The bottom of the bull channel, with potential for a slightly deeper test around 6610, the low from September 17.
5min Reviews for Last Monday
Entry 1:
Initial Expectation: Place a stop order above Bar 3, with a stop loss set below Bar 3 and a target of at least one times the measured move at 6736.
Actual Outcome: The best exit would have been a small loss below Bar 20, or waiting for the stop loss to be triggered, resulting in a loss of 7.5 points.
Entry 2:
Initial Expectation: Place a stop order below Bar 20, targeting one times the measured move at approximately 6700.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at Bar 59 at around 6700, yielding a profit of 16 points.
Entry 3:
Initial Expectation: Place a stop order above Bar 53, signaling a break of the bear flag, with a stop loss below Bar 49 and a target at the prior bearish breakout level of about 6715.
Actual Outcome: Target reached at 6715.25, resulting in a profit of 6.25 points.
5min Reviews for Last Tuesday
Entry 1:
Initial Expectation: Place a stop order above Bar 15, with a stop loss below Bar 15 and a target of at least one times the measured move at 6709 or the top of the trading range at 6713.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at 6713, resulting in a profit of 11 points.
Entry 2:
Initial Expectation: Place a limit order at or below the low of Bar 15, with actual entry at Bar 24, anticipating trading range behavior due to persistent bullish momentum on a higher time frame. Target set at the high of the trading range at 6713.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at 6713, resulting in a profit of 20 points.
Entry 3:
Initial Expectation: Place a limit order at or below the low of Bar 24, which was not triggered. After observing Bar 53, given the bullish context and strong signal bar, place a buy stop above Bar 53, targeting the top of the trading range or one times the measured move based on the trading range.
Actual Outcome: Both exit targets were achieved.
5min Reviews for Last Wednesday
Entry 1:
Initial Expectation: Place a buy order at the open or above Bar 1, targeting the previous daily high, with a stop loss below Bar 1.
Actual Outcome: Stop loss was triggered. However, a one-sided bullish trend developed afterward.
Entry 2:
Initial Expectation: After observing a large bearish bar with no follow-through and consecutive bull bars, combined with a bullish trend on a higher time frame, a long position above Bar 5 is reasonable. Target set at the previous daily high, with a stop loss below Bar 5.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at Bar 26.
Entry 3:
Initial Expectation: Bar 42 serves as a significant signal bar, indicating weak bearish momentum and no selling pressure after a weak pullback.
Actual Outcome: Using a trailing stop at this point would have resulted in taking profit at the last bar of the session. Or if you holds overnight, the 1 time Measure Move will be reach at 6781 in premarket.
5min Reviews for Last Thursday
Entry 1:
Initial Expectation: Place a long stop order below Bar 2, targeting the close of the gap.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at Bars 11 and 13.
Entry 2:
Initial Expectation: Place a stop order above Bar 14, anticipating a bullish trend continuation, but it was not triggered. After observing Bar 15 closing as a bear bar with a small tail below, place a short order targeting one times the measured move.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at Bar 26.
Entry 3:
Initial Expectation: Bar 29 is a significant bull bar; placing a stop order above it to target a one times measured move is reasonable.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at Bar 58.
5min Reviews for Last Friday
Entry 1:
Initial Expectation: Place a short stop order above Bar 2, targeting a one times measured move.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at Bar 31.
Entry 2:
Initial Expectation: Bar 42 is a surprise bearish bar; place a sell limit order at a 50% pullback, targeting the bottom of the opening bar.
Actual Outcome: Target achieved at Bar 51. If using 5-minute bars across the session, the ideal target could extend slightly further to around 6762, aligning with the bottom of the channel.
